Resume af teksten:
Europæiske CO2-priser er steget mod 90 euro pr. ton CO2.
December-2026-kontrakten steg fra cirka 76 euro i begyndelsen af juli til omkring 86,6 euro sidst i juli.
Lavere auktionsmængder og overførsel af cirka 190 millioner kvoter til markedsstabilitetsreserven har strammet udbuddet.
Kulde, svag vind og høje gaspriser har øget behovet for kulproduktion og CO2-kvoter.
CBAM fik en finansiel rapporteringsfase i januar 2026, mens certifikater sælges fra februar 2027.
Den første CBAM-frist er i september 2027 for emissioner fra import i 2026.
EU overvejer fra januar 2028 at udvide CBAM med omkring 180 videreforarbejdede produkter.
Forhandlinger om en kobling mellem EU’s og Storbritanniens kvotemarkeder er fremskredne, men ikke formelt afsluttet.
Prognosen fastholdes på en gennemsnitlig EUA-pris på 86 euro pr. ton i fjerde kvartal.
Fra ABN-Amro:
Carbon prices have risen towards 90 EUR/tCO2, supported by tighter allowance supply and gas market pressures. EU ETS reform will shape longer-term market conditions, while we retain our Q4 average forecast of 86 EUR/tCO2.
Moutaz Altaghlibi
Senior Economist Energy Research
CBAM is becoming a financial obligation for importers, with proposed broader coverage increasing the importance of reliable emissions data
EU-UK ETS linkage could support UK carbon prices and narrow the price gap, although implementation timing remains uncertain
European carbon prices have been trending upwards. The benchmark December-2026 EUA contract rose from roughly 76 EUR/tCO2 in early July to about 86.6 EUR/tCO2 in late July. Prices then stabilised at around 82–84 EUR/tCO2 in August before climbing towards 88 EUR/tCO2 in September and October. At the time of writing, the price is hovering around 90 EUR/tCO2. Several factors have supported this rally. On the supply side, lower auction volumes and the planned withdrawal of around 190 million allowances into the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) have reinforced expectations of tighter supply in the short term. The end-September deadline for surrendering allowances also supported prices. Weather conditions have become an important driver of demand: colder temperatures and weaker winds increase reliance on conventional power generation, while high gas prices encourage a switch from gas to more carbon-intensive coal. Both developments increase demand for carbon allowances. Higher trading volumes and renewed buying interest have provided further support following August’s period of stable prices. Finally, discussions about reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and a potential link between the EU and UK carbon markets have reformed expectations about long term prices. In this note, we review the latest developments that are expected to reshape the carbon market in the coming years.
CBAM is moving from a reporting requirement to a real cost for companies importing carbon-intensive goods into the EU. The financial reporting phase started in January 2026, CBAM certificates will go on sale in February 2027, and the first compliance deadline is September 2027 for 2026 imported emissions. The impact will vary significantly depending on the carbon footprint of imported products. Companies that can provide reliable, verified emissions data can pay substantially less than those relying on standard EU default values, making emissions data and supplier transparency increasingly important.
Looking ahead, CBAM is expected to have broader coverage and become more impactful from 2028 onwards. The EU is considering adding around 180 downstream products from January 2028, which could roughly triple the value of imports initially covered by CBAM and extend the impact particularly to machinery, automotive and electrical equipment. During 2027, further decisions are also expected on this expansion and on how carbon prices already paid outside the EU will be recognized. Overall, CBAM is likely to increasingly affect import costs, competitiveness, sourcing decisions and supply chains, while giving an advantage to companies and suppliers with lower emissions and good-quality emissions data.
EU–UK ETS linkage is at an advanced stage: negotiations are reportedly complete to a large extent, although the agreement has not yet been formally published or brought into force. The next key milestone is the UK-EU Summit on 20 November 2026, when further progress is expected. We expect 2027 likely to be a transition year, rather than the start of full linkage. Meanwhile, the UK CBAM is currently due to begin on 1 January 2027. We expect the two systems and carbon prices to move closer during 2027-28, with full linkage potentially around 2029, but this is more like a prediction, rather than an agreed timeline.
Moving forward, the main impact is likely to be higher UK carbon prices, as UK allowances move closer to the generally more expensive EU allowances. This price gap could narrow during 2027-28, although prices may remain volatile until the legal timing is clear. For the EU market, the effect should be smaller and could slightly reduce prices because the combined market would have more allowances and trading activity. Linking the systems should also improve liquidity, make carbon prices more consistent across Europe, and reduce CBAM-related costs and paperwork for trade between the UK and EU. Overall, the market is likely to react positively to a confirmed deal, especially UK allowances, but any delay or uncertainty could cause price movements. More on CBAM impacts and other price projection in our earlier publication here .
Since the European Commission published its EU ETS review on 17 July 2026, the proposal has moved into the legislative scrutiny and negotiation phase. The most recent publicly documented positions indicate that Member States are now testing the balance between industrial competitiveness/cost containment and environmental integrity. The next major milestone is the Council position, currently targeted for 11 December 2026, while the European Parliament is developing its own position; only after both co-legislators establish mandates can trilogue negotiations with the Commission begin, with an indicative ambition to reach a compromise by end-Q1 2027, although that timetable remains politically dependent.
For November and early December, the key development to watch is the emergence of Council compromises and parliamentary amendments. As indicated in our earlier publication here , the July proposal should be treated as the negotiating baseline rather than the expected final design, with materially greater visibility on Member-State changes likely around the December Council milestone and the definitive architecture only becoming clear once Parliament adopts its negotiating mandate and trilogues advance.
Carbon prices may remain supported in the coming months as pressure on the European gas market persists, particularly as we navigate the heating season with low gas operational buffer. Weak winds and cold spells could increase demand for carbon allowances and put further upward pressure on prices. Markets will also closely monitor EU ETS reform negotiations, developments related to the Iran war and weather conditions, with prices likely to react to new information to the upside or the downside. Against this backdrop, we maintain our Q4 forecast, expecting EUA prices to average 86 EUR/tCO2 in Q4 and 80 EUR/tCO2 for 2026 as a whole. Despite the current challenges, we expect prices to remain above 80 EUR/tCO2 in early 2027. We plan to update our long-term outlook in the beginning of 2027, once there is greater clarity on the European Parliament’s and Council’s proposed changes to the EU ETS review.
Moutaz Altaghlibi
Senior Economist Energy Research
Kilde: ABN-Amro, https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/carbon-market-watch-carbon-prices-climb-as-policy-reforms-take-shape
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