Fra Conference Board/ Zerohedge:
After rebounding strongly from November to January, US Consumer Confidence tumbled in February, according to the latest survey from The Conference Board, beating expectations across the board.
- Consumer confidence fell to 106.7 (estimate 115.0) in February from revised 110.9 in January
- Present situation fell to 147.2 from revised 154.9 in January
- Expectations index fell to 79.8 from revised 81.5 in January
While that decline on the chart does not look like much, it is dramatic relative to expectations and pre-revision levels. A six-sigma miss…
Source: Bloomberg
But, for the fourth straight month, The Conference Board revised its consumer confidence data significantly lower. In fact January’s was the biggest downward revision since Feb 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
So January’s spike above July’s revised highs which everyone shot their load of exuberance over… is gonzo!!
Source: Bloomberg
For context, that is 11.1 pts of ‘confidence’ erased by ‘adjustments/revisions’ in four months – by far the largest downward shift in the survey’s history…
Source: Bloomberg
Which brings up the same question we had last month?
The Conference Board’s indicator inflation expectations tumbled further to +5.2% – still notably high but trend in the right direction…
Source: Bloomberg
The labor market indicators trended notably stronger again in February?
Source: Bloomberg
