Olieprisen er faldet kraftigt den seneste tid, og udviklingen kan fortsætte på grund af den afdæmning af efterspørgselen, som corona-virus medfører, f.eks. med lavere import til Kina og aflyste flyvninger.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
Oil prices have been under considerable pressure in recent weeks. The Brent oil price – active monthly contract – has fallen to USD 54/barrel (from USD 68/bbl early January) and WTI even fell below USD 50/barrel. Although the coronavirus consequences are still difficult to estimate, market speculators have reduced their long positions (speculation on price rises), and short positions (speculation on further price falls) have increased. As a result, the net position of the outstanding contracts has also decreased to a neutral position.
In the forward curve (series of current prices for future delivery) we have seen considerable shifts in recent weeks. Particularly at the front of the curve, prices have risen since the beginning of December due to the turmoil in the Middle East. After that, the oil price fell sharply after the unrest calmed, in combination with the current uncertainty regarding expected demand from China.
OPEC has to get back to work
Nonetheless, market parties are looking again at OPEC and its partners (led by Russia) to see if the efforts to reduce production and thereby support the price should be stepped up. The OPEC+ technical committee is meeting this week to research all the options. The official extraordinary meeting of OPEC is scheduled for 5-6 March. During that consultation, the current production reduction agreement of a total of 2.1 million barrels per day will be evaluated. This agreement expires at the end of March. The options for a similar or an even larger production cut for a longer period (possibly until the end of 2020) are still open. Market talks suggest that OPEC must even bring its meeting forward to respond to the current situation. An even larger and faster production reduction to balance the market is therefore possible.
We wonder whether it would be wise for OPEC to already respond to potentially lower oil demand with an additional production reduction. Such an emergency measure of even further production reductions could be counterproductive should the situation for the oil market turn out not to be as bad as feared now. And since we do not yet know how big the impact is on demand for oil from China (and how temporary that effect is), such a measure looks premature. The first consequences are now seen in a decrease in the demand for oil-related products such as gasoline and kerosene, but the extent to which this affects the import of oil is not yet clear.
