Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Corona kan kaste Italien ud i recession

Hugo Gaarden

torsdag 27. februar 2020 kl. 10:00

Italien kan blive det første land, der bliver kastet ud i recession på grund af coronavirus, men det skyldes dog, at Italien i forvejen var tæt på en recession. ABN Amro venter negativ vækst i første og andet kvartal efter negativ vækst i fjerde kvartal sidste år.

Uddrag fra ABN Amro:

Global Daily – The coronavirus and the Italian economy

Italy has emerged as the country most impacted by the coronavirus in the eurozone up until now. Italy makes up around 15% of eurozone GDP. At time of writing, the total number of cases had risen to more than 280. Most cases are in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto.

Lombardy accounts for around 21% of Italian GDP, while Veneto makes up around 9%. There is a full lockdown with transport restrictions in around twelve small towns (containing around 50,000 people) in Lombardy.

A recession looked likely even before this new shock – Italy’s economy already was in poor shape before the coronavirus hit the northern part of the country. GDP contracted by 0.3% qoq in 2019Q4, following a 0.1% increase in Q3. In December 2019, production dropped by 2.7% mom, implying that there is a significant negative statistical carry-over into 2020Q1. In January, so before the outbreak of the coronavirus in China, Italy’s manufacturing PMI jumped higher, but remained at a level (48.9) below the long-term average value and consistent with ongoing contraction in industry. The composite PMI also increased in January (to 50.4, up from 49.3 in December) but also stayed below its long-term average and at a level consistent with stabilisation of GDP.

Considering Italy’s relatively close industrial trade links with Germany, we had already expected that Italy would be one of the eurozone countries that would be hit relatively hard by the outbreak of the coronavirus in China and the rest of Asia. Before the coronavirus reached Italy, we were projecting a 0.1% contraction in Q1 (which would mark a technical recession), before stabilisation in Q2. The possible direct effects of the coronavirus on Italy discussed above, will likely deepen the contraction in Q1 and see another fall in output in Q2.

 

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Forretningsudvikler til Pension og Formue
Pension, Formue
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Midt- og Nordjylland
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Afdelingsdirektør for forretningsudvikling Private Banking
Private Banking
Aabenraa
Grønborg: Bankernes rejse nærmer sig afslutningen
Udløber snart
Formuerådgiver
Formuerådgiver
Region hovedstaden og Sjælland
ØKONOMIMEDARBEJDER – Carlsbergfondet
Region Hovedstaden
Regnskabsassistent til Pharma Nord
Region Syddanmark
Generalsekretær i Folkekirkens Nødhjælp
Region Hovedstaden
Kontorchef for økonomi, analyse og kunder i Færdselsstyrelsen
Region H
DIGITALISERINGSCHEF – Muskelsvindfonden
Region H
Direktionskonsulent med flair for økonomi og udviklingsprojekter
Region Sjælland

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank