I løbet af weekenden ser coronakrisen ud til at have toppet i Sydeuropa, mens der stadig kommer nye tilfælde og voksende dødsfald i USA og Storbritannien. Antal af dødsfald i Sverige er måske langt større end formodet.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Daily Corona update: Past the peak in Italy, Spain and France
We bring you our Daily Corona update with stats from across the globe. Focus is now on UK and US, since we have increasingly convincing data that the corona virus in Spain, France and Italy has already peaked.
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It has been a weekend of decent news on the virus front, since evidence is now gathering that Spain, Italy and most likely also France are past the peak in terms of hospitalization, intensive care needs and ultimately daily fatalities. The same also seems to be the case on hospitalization data from New York, which is surprisingly early. The rest of the US is behind the curve of New York.
Chart 1: Spain and Italy are likely past the peak on daily fatalities
Spain is now the most “fatal case” per capita. Nominally it is likely that the US will turn into the most fatal case globally during the next 7-10 days as a lagged consequence of the amount of cases. Trump has already warned that it will be an ugly week in the US.
UK is probably the case that we should watch the closest in Europe by now, since the growth rates are yet to really come down. Boris Johnson was hospitalized late yesterday as a “precautionary measure”, but it will likely still be discussed intensively the coming days.
The Swedish news bureau TT reported early Sunday that as many as 750 (compared to the roughly 400 on official numbers) could be dead from Corona and that fatalities were underreported. The story has now been adjusted to just saying that it is unclear how the revised data will look (a revision is underway), but Chief Virologist Anders Tegnell has acknowledged that some backloading may occur in fatality data. We would be on the watch for the Swedish case data in coming days, since the uncertainty seems to be on the rise. Sweden is the worst case in the Nordics in all measures, but it is not a surprise since Sweden should incur a steeper but also more short-lived virus spread due to the fewer virus containment efforts than e.g. in Norway and Denmark.
