Coronakurven ser ud til at have toppet. Nu flader kurven ud i de fleste store lande, og nogle lande begynder at genstarte økonomien. Det fører også til diskusioner om den rigtige strategi for en exit fra krisen, men også til et “blame game.” Var regeringernes strategi mod krisen den rigtige?
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Daily Corona update: Not a king, but the president
Flattening curves in some of the big Western countries have spurred optimism and talk of exit strategies, but how do one safely re-open a country? In the US, the blame game has a new companion: The credit game.
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Despite the number of corona cases now having surpassed two million globally, the last couple of days have generally been filled with more optimism (in the West at least). Italy yesterday recorded its lowest tally of new cases in a month , while Spain and Germany again reported fewer new infections. And in the US, the trend is also deaccelerating. All good news.
Chart 1. A flattening case curve in the US and Italy
The flattening case curves have in turn made leaders across Europe pondering their next exit steps. However, while it is fairly easy to shut down countries, it is a more complex question of how to re-open one without re-accelerating the case curve in a chaotic manner. It seems like no one really has a good answer to that (yet).
Looking at the fatalities per million gauge, there are also still some worrying cases in Europe. Especially, Belgium and the UK have some unpleasant steep curves and are the ones to watch out for in the coming days.
Chart 2. Fatalities per million in selected countries
In the US, the bigger question yesterday seemed to be who gets the credit for re-opening the economy rather than how to actually do it in a safe manner. Thus, standard electionomics suggests that the Great Lockdown Recession does not bode well for Trump’s hope to Keep America Great after November, why the president is eager to re-open the economy already around 1 May.
That deadline, which Trump’s own NIAID director Fauci has judged to be a bit too optimistic, has however made some governors flexing their muscles, reminding Trump that the re-opening authority rests with them. To put it like NY Governor Cuomo, “We don’t have a King Trump. We have President Trump”. Clearly, the blame game has got a new companion: The credit game.
Looking at the actual numbers, the US is also on a better trajectory – especially in the epicentre of New York. The peak in new cases thus seems to be behind us, with also more encouraging hospitalization numbers.
Chart 3. NY fatalities and cases curves have flattened
In Scandi land, the credit game has also begun. Yesterday, the Danish PM called for a high-scaled press conference in which she and the Government defended their current strategy rather than presenting news or any upcoming initiatives. The current strategy has thus been heavily questioned during Easter by the opposition as the Danish curve has flattened and hospitals are underutilized. This has prompted the question (and hope) of a more aggressive and business-friendly approach.
Such a more aggressive approach has in fact just been announced this morning in Finland, as the Helsinki Region’s isolation from the rest of the country has ended. The PM did though still underscore the importance of continuing social distancing.
Chart 4. Flattening IC and hospitalizations curves in Denmark
In Sweden, daily fatalities spiked to 114 on Tuesday. This does look worrisome, however, as we discussed in our update yesterday, it comes on the back of the weekend where data are of almost no use due to lagged reporting. Still, models from Imperial College London suggest that daily fatalities will accelerate further during this week why we think the Swedish case is the most worrying one (when looking purely at the corona case/fatality gauges, ie neglecting other socioeconomic factors).
