Ifølge en analyse fra ING kan coronavirussen reducere den kinesiske vækst i år med 0,3 pct. til 5,6 pct. Det er en mindre virkning end SARS, men virkningen kan mærkes på verdensøkonomien, omend beskedent, på grund af Kinas økonomiske tyngde.
Uddrag fra ING:
As China fights a new strain of the coronavirus, retailers, restaurants, tourism and mass travel services are all severely affected in an effort to prevent its spread. We expect Chinese GDP growth to be reduced by 0.3 percentage points to 5.6% in 2020.
The Chinese government has already extended the Chinese New Year holiday by three days, until 2 February. But the virus could nonetheless spread more rapidly as workers return to work, particularly in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and Guangzhou, where supplies of masks are in shortage. Though the mortality rate associated with the virus is currently around 4%, it is hard to be sure that the virus doesn’t mutate to become more fatal.
The virus has already been detected in the US, France, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Nepal.
We expect retail sales in China to drop from 8%YoY to around 3% – 4%YoY. Meanwhile, global tourism, which relies heavily on Chinese tourists, could experience a negative growth of more than 30%.
As the virus spreads, and more casualties are reported, we expect the yuan per dollar to weaken to 7.20.
