På baggrund af EU-kommissionens dystre vurdering af økonomien i euro-zonen vurderer Danske Bank, at de europæiske finansielle aktiver vil klare sig dårligere end de amerikanske.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
The European Commission’s (EC) gloomy outlook for the European economy certainly did nothing to help lift the euro sentiment. Although the EC still sees the euro area on a ‘path of steady and moderate growth’ with GDP expanding by 1.2% in 2020, the report stressed that risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, not least with the coronavirus outbreak as a key new downside risk emerging. We share the EC’s concerns when it comes to the near-term hit to Europe’s manufacturing sector from the virus impact and we have recently lowered our euro area GDP growth forecast to 0.8% for 2020 (see Research: V-shape scenario for global growth on back of coronavirus).
With the euro area remaining caught in the ‘low-for-longer’ growth curse, accompanied by weak inflation dynamics, our baseline is now for a continued relative underperformance of European financial assets relative to USD denominated assets. Hence, we have revised our EUR/USD profile materially, to 1.07 on 12M, down from 1.15 previously (see FX Forecast Update – EUR/USD headed for new lows in the coming year).