Danske Bank: Carlsberg – H1 21, initial impression

Carlsberg (MW): Out with the H1 21 result this morning. Overall the numbers look solid with revenues around 2% ahead of Bloomberg consensus (DKK31.7bn vs. DKK30.9bn) and EBIT also around 2% ahead (DKK5.11bn vs. DKK5bn). Revenues grew some 9.6% on an organic basis, which is strong, but also against a very weak comparison period. Carlsberg continues to see negative effects from the Covid-19 pandemic but effects are highly varied across geographical regions. As a result of the good start to the year and Q3, Carlsberg upgrades the guidance for FY2021 organic revenue growth to 8%-11% (vs. 5%-10% previously). Carlsberg also makes a minor change to a previously flagged translation impact which is now expected at around -DKK150m (vs. -DKK250m previously). Carlsberg had a solid free cash flow of DKK5.3bn during the quarter but around DKK5bn was consumed by dividends and buy-backs leaving reported net debt to EBITDA roughly unchanged at 1.43x vs. 1.51x (year-end 2021). Overall a solid report from Carlsberg, but we do not see this moving bond prices to any significant degree given already quite tight pricing for the rating.