”European investments are set to rise following the German fiscal package, rising defence spending, Draghi report, and asset rotation out of the US. In this deep dive we provide an overview of the measures taken to increase public as well as private investments and we assess how much annual investments could increase by 2030. We estimate the total impact is 1% of GDP (EUR 180 bn) in extra real annual investments in EU in 2030. In other words, barely 20% of Draghi’s EUR 800 bn investment target will be reached. Private investments are expected to increase by around 6% (EUR 160 bn, 0.9% of GDP) by 2030. Public investments are expected to increase by 0.4 percentage points of GDP from increased defence spending and the German infrastructure spending but the end of the EU pandemic recovery fund from 2027 will counter this by 0.3 points, leaving a 0.1% of GDP (EUR 20 bn) increase in public investments by 2030.’
Morten W. Langer
