Fra Danske Bank:
Economic growth in the US has remained relatively solid despite the cooling seen in labour markets. We expect sequential growth to recover into 2026 driven by supportive fiscal and monetary policy, but structurally, demographics increasingly limit further expansion in the productive capacity of the economy.
We lift our 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% (from 1.6%) and 2026 to 1.9% (from 1.4%) as the trade war impact on growth has been more limited than we expected. In 2027, we forecast growth stabilizing at a slower trend pace of 1.7%.
Inflation has evolved largely in line with our earlier forecasts. In 2026, we see further upside pressure on goods, food and health care prices, and downside pressure in housing prices. We maintain our headline inflation forecast at 2.8% in 2025 (unchanged), 2.5% in 2026 (from 2.6%) and 2.4% in 2027. We forecast core inflation at 3.0% in 2025 (unchanged), 2.8% in 2026 (unchanged) and 2.6% in 2027.
We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in December, March and June (prev. January, April and July), and then maintain the terminal rate of 3.00-3.25% through the rest of 2026 and 2027. Risks around the outlook are balanced. Sudden slowdown in private consumption could tilt the Fed towards resuming more aggressive rate cuts, but the persistent fiscal easing could also force the Fed to maintain rates at a structurally higher level than we assume.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
