Maersk (MW): Peer Hapaq-Lloyd has stated that it expects very strong earnings growth in Q1 21 y/y. Hapag-Lloyd guides for EBITDA of at least EUR1.5bn compared to EUR469m in Q1 20. At the same time Hapaq-Lloyd guides for 2021 profits to be significantly higher than 2020. “We will see a very strong result in the first quarter – but we anticipate a normalisation as the year progresses. We are still seeing slower container turn times, significant congestion in ports, capacity constraints”.
Maersk has guided for profits in Q1 21 that are higher than in Q4 20. Hence we already know that Maersk (and other container companies) will have a strong start to 2021. The level and timing of the rate normalisation is difficult to predict – but in H1 21 credit metrics will be well supported. However we do not expect Maersk to target a BBB+ rating as the company will prioritize to grow the logistics business and/or increase shareholder remuneration. Therefore we continue to see limited upside in the EUR2026 but continue to see upside in some local currency bonds.
