Fra Danske Bank:
China continues to be a two-speed economy with domestic demand being weak while exports and tech powers ahead.
After another year of 5% growth in 2025, we look for a slight softening to 4.8% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, unchanged from our December forecasts.
We expect the composition of growth to be broadly unchanged in 2026 with sluggish consumption growth while exports are set to remain strong. The drag from housing should ease as construction levels have already fallen substantially.
We expect overall supply to again outpace demand leaving overcapacity in place. However, there are signs that deflationary pressures are easing.
In the new Five-Year Plan, China doubles down on tech and puts more weight on consumer demand. It requires new and more forceful measures to stabilize housing, which we believe will take some time still.
US-China relations are calm ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing in late March. The long-term rivalry remains intact, though. Trade relations with EU are set to remain on a rocky path due to a continued high Chinese trade surplus.
The question of reunification with Taiwan will continue to linger but we see limited risk of military conflict during
Trump’s Presidency.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
