Beskæftigelsen falder ikke ud over klippekanten, når den statslige støtte til beskæftigelsen ophører, vurderer Danske Bank. Derimod er det de nye markedsvilkår, der vil ramme beskæftigelsen, f.eks. med permanent reduceret bskæftigelse i flybranchen, turismen og eksportindustrien.
- In my view, the risk to the labour market in the Nordics does not come from the end of wage compensation and furlough schemes. The risk is a more lasting change in consumer behaviour, which will permanently destroy jobs in industries such as air traffic, hotels and recreation, and a long-term hit to exports.
- I do not believe that the phasing out of support measures will lead to a cliff edge in the Nordics.
- I expect the Fed will adjust its forward guidance at the September meeting in line with its new mandate. I believe the Fed will state that it will target inflation to overshoot 2%.
- Near term, the USD may consolidate given stretched positioning and with Jackson Hole out of the way. Medium term, I believe the USD will still head lower, for example against the NOK, which is supported by the fast recovery.
