Danske Bank med kommentar til SAS Q4:
SAS (MW) reported a Q4 report significantly impacted by Covid-19. Revenues declined to SEK3.0bn from 13.4bn in Q4 last year. EBITDA declined to SEK -1.1bn vs. 1.7bn in Q4 last year. Net profit was SEK-2.6bn vs. SEK0.9bn. The operating cash flow from operations before working capital was SEK-1.6bn – hence a monthly cash burn of some SEK550m before working capital. Including negative working capital of SEK1.4bn the total operating cash flow was SEK-2.9bn in Q4. Due to the recapitalisation which included SEK14.25bn in strengthened equity and adding SEK12bn to liquidity the Group equity position end-Q4 was SEK10.5bn. The cash and cash equivalent position was SEK10.2bn. SAS expects weak cash flow in Q1 (Nov-Jan) – negatively impacted by refunds (approx SEK0.9bn) – hence the cash outflow could be of similar magnitude as in Q4. Depending on the re-start of travelling which is highly dependent on the Covid-19 vaccine in our view – SAS will be able to mitigate the cash flow pressure during 2021 without further recapitalisation due to the SEK10.2bn of cash and cash equivalents and unutilized contracted credit facilities of SEK2.8bn. Overall a weak report as expected – with additional weakness expected for the coming 1-2 quarters. The bond spread will be highly dependent on the vaccine roll-out and normalisation of travel patterns – but due to the recapitalisation SAS is well positioned to get through a difficult 2021 in our view.
