Danske Bank ser på det tyske valg og fremtiden efter Merkel-æraen. Det mulige valg af en kansler fra De Grønne udgør den største risiko for politisk stabilitet. På europæisk plan opstår der et politisk vakuum, selv om en grøn ledet regering vil være pro-europæisk.
As the ‘era Angela Merkel’ is drawing to a close, the outcome of Germany’s federal election on the 26 September 2021 will have important implications for economic and fiscal policies for years to come.
As the biggest euro area economy, accounting for nearly a third of output, Germany has not only an outsized influence on European growth prospects, but also plays a key role in shaping European policy discussions.
Like no other western democracy Germany has long epitomised the picture of political stability and continuity of leadership in Europe. However, with Merkel’s withdrawal from the political scene, the 2021 election will push German politics into unchartered territory.
Increased political fragmentation and the notable rise to popularity of the Green party make it seem likely that political change is in the air.
The Green party will be king-makers in any future governing coalition, opening up the potential for a more relaxed fiscal stance down the line. However, the ‘debt brake’ will still limit expansionary fiscal policies.
A German chancellor from the Green party leaves the biggest potential for policy disruption in our view.
Although we expect the new government to maintain a clear pro-European stance, a European leadership vacuum is opening up with the departure of Angela Merkel. This leaves room for more political uncertainty on the European stage over the coming years.
