Det amerikanske marked er begyndt at indregne muligheden af negative renter, selv om centralbankens formand hidtil har afvist det. Der kommer måske en udmelding om det fra Fed på onsdag.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
In the US fixed income market the treasury curve continues to steepen. The short end (2Y) is kept low as markets price in ‘low for longer’. Furthermore, last week for the first time markets started to price in a probability of Fed funds moving below zero, despite Powell clearly dismissing NIRP as late as March.
Powell will hit the wires on Wednesday when he discusses current economic issues in a webinar. The long end of the curve on the other hand is pushed higher by the better risk sentiment and not least by the wave of new long-end issuance the coming months. Bond traders have recently been surprised that the US treasury will rely more on long-end issuance than previously expected.
In the US Trump tries to convince people that it is safe to go back to work as the unemployment rate jumped to 14.7% and more than 20 million people lost their jobs in April. However, the virus has now literally infected the White House and the Vice President has self-isolated from the White House after his press secretary Katie Miller on Friday was diagnosed with COVID-19. Katie Miller is married to Stephen Miller who is part of Trump’s inner circle and the main architect of Trump’s immigration policy.
The US equity market had a strong Friday as the labour market report was slightly better than feared and analysts pointed to a large number of temporary lay-offs indicating a quick labour market recovery when the lockdown ends. The market also welcomed news that China-US trade representatives discussed the phase-1 trade deal. The positive sentiment has been sustained overnight with equity futures in green. Nikkei is up 1.5% this morning.