Danske venter ingen stærk tysk finans-reaktion

Den tyske regering har bebudet en finanspolitisk lempelse for at bekæmpe følgerne af corona-krisen, men Danske Bank venter kun en beskeden reaktion, som vil skuffe markedet.

Uddrag fra Danske Bank:

With the arrival of the coronavirus on Europe’s shores, calls for a forceful European fiscal response have grown louder in the market. As one of the few countries with ample fiscal space, pressure to act has particularly mounted on Germany, where the number of COVID-19 infections continues to climb, standing at 1,112 at the time of writing, and German industry was already in a fragile state to begin with, even before supply disruption from China hit.

We expect Germany’s fiscal response to the corona crisis to stay re-active rather than pro-active, thereby remaining a disappointment to market expectations. However, with the government showing at least some appetite for pre-emptive action to shield the labour market, we think the risk of the coronavirus hit morphing into a protracted employment recession has at least been reduced. Should the economy plunge into a deep recession, however, and the need for a big stimulus package arise, we do not expect fiscal rules such as the debt brake to constitute an impediment.

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