Chefen for den amerikanske centralbank, Jerome Powell, sagde i går, at det er for tidligt at sige, om Delta-varianten vil påvirke den amerikanske økonomi. Men Delta kaster en skygge over økonomien, sagde han. Alligevel vurderer analytikere, at aktierne stiger i Europa, og at de amerikanske aktier vil følge efter. Det skyldes, at centralbanken trods alt har indikeret, at banken fra slutningen af efteråret vil nedtone sine obligationsopkøb – uden dog at sætte renten i vejret foreløbig.
Uddrag fra Fidelity/Dow Jones:
Stocks to Gain Despite Cautious Powell
Jerome Powell’s cautious assessment of the Delta’s impact on the U.S. economy, will likely cap opening gains for European shares. In Asia, stocks were steady, the dollar dipped but Treasury yields and commodities were slightly firmer.
European equities are poised for modest opening gains on Wednesday despite warnings from the Federal Reserve that the Covid-19 pandemic remained a threat to the economic outlook.
Jerome Powell on Tuesday said it remains to be seen how the U.S. economy will weather the recent virus surge, in comments that offered no views on the outlook for monetary policy.
Mr. Powell also said the recovery isn’t complete. “The Covid pandemic is still casting a shadow on economic activity. It is still very much with us. We can’t, you know, we can’t declare victory yet on that,” he said.
Speaking at a separate event, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis leader Neel Kashkari expressed concern about what the more virulent Delta Covid-19 variant could mean for the nation.
“I was feeling really optimistic in June and July. It seemed like the light was on at the end of the tunnel, and this is soon to be over, and then the Delta variant emerged and it’s simply much more contagious,” he said. “It could lead to a more sluggish recovery if people are nervous,” Mr. Kashkari said.
The Fed releases minutes from its July 27-28 policy meeting after the European close on Wednesday. Officials last month inched toward scaling back the easy-money policies adopted at the start of the pandemic and the latest minutes could offer more insight on those plans.
Forex:
The dollar’s advance stalled in Asia and the yen also weakened as strength in several regional equity markets spurred mild appetite for riskier assets.
However, market sentiment may largely stay on hold with the Fed minutes to monitor, said IG, which will likely be scrutinized for any clues on the tapering timeline ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium next week.
Ebury said the euro is likely to rise against the dollar in the near-term but only modestly as the eurozone’s economic recovery catches up with the U.S.
“We think that the recent move lower in EUR/USD has perhaps been excessive, and think that the likely convergence in economic performance between the U.S. and Euro Area in the third quarter should support the euro in the near-term,” said Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan.
However, inflationary pressures in the euro-area are lagging and the European Central Bank appears in no rush to scale back stimulus, he said. Ebury expects EUR/USD to rise to 1.19 by year-end.
