Uddrag fra finanshuse:
Some disconnects
Here is a collection of cross-asset macro charts that matters now. Markets have mostly priced a rates shock, not recession risk, drawdowns remain limited, and earnings expectations continue higher. Some other charts are telling slightly different stories.
Still small drawdown
So far, the drawdown for the World Portfolio of global equities and global bonds has been limited, especially compared to previous stagflationary shocks.
Source: Haver
Mainly rates shock
Markets have mostly priced a rate shock but limited growth risks.
Source: Goldman
The ghost of 1974
Most historical oil spikes linked to geopolitical shocks had a temporary impact, but some weighed on equities and bonds for longer. Like 1974 -35% and >6 months.
Source: Datastream
Longer-dated US inflation expectations have declined
Much in contrast to 2022, longer-dated inflation expectations (5y5y breakeven inflation) declined, with 5y5y real yields increasing. This upward pressure in yields helps explain a large part of the equity drawdown – as it has been driven by a supply-side shock without better growth, the impact on both equities and bonds has been negative.
Source: GS FICC
Realised and long-dated S&P 500 vols subdued
Realised and long-dated S&P 500 vols have been relatively subdued, while short-dated left tail vol has risen materially.
Source: Soc Gen Cross Asset
Not pricing recession
Market pricing of recession risk remains very benign.
Source: Haver
Not yet bearish level
GS: “After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but is not at bearish levels yet.”
Source: GOAL
Profit expectations are still going up
S&P 500 ex oil quarterly profit expectations (indexed).
Source: Soc Gen Cross Asset
Higher
SPX ’26 EPS revised higher by 4% since Jan 1st.
Source: BofA Flow Show
Margins improving
Margins improving outside tech too.
Source: Soc Gen
Parabolic
If we zoom out a little, there is no question that US forward earnings growth in IT has been parabolic. Chart from Albert Edwards show YoY change.
Source: Albert Edwards
Inflection?
The pace of upgrading has turned downwards.
Source: Albert Edwards
Tech de-rating
Fears of AI disruption have led to a very sharp de-rating of software and tech stocks more broadly. Not much PE premium left to erode.
Source: Datastream
No bubble levels
Equity risk premium on Nasdaq is NOT at bubble levels.
Source: Soc Gen
Leveraged loans
Leveraged loan spreads have widened more compared to corporate credit.
Source: Haver
A cycle low
Physical economy market cap weight of S&P 500 is at a cycle low.
Source: Soc Gen cross asset
Payrolls & Profits
US payrolls MoM vs. S&P 500 12m fwd EPS YoY %.
Source: BofA
Revenue per employee
S&P 500: revenue per employee is up 40% over past 4 years.
Source: Soc Gen
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