Lige nu er der ro på markederne verden over. Flere centralbanker har bevidst holdt sig fra rentestigninger, de seneste amerikanske jobtal var robuste, og den store plan for infrastrukturen i USA (1000 milliarder dollar) er godkendt. Kina har en bedre eksport end forventet. Men har verden bare fået en frist – efter stormen eller før stormen? Vokser inflations-tendensen? Får vi en række rentestigninger næste år? Alle venter på indikationerne.
Marketmind: Calm after — or before — the storm
Central banks have managed to walk back the most aggressive rate hike bets, U.S. jobs data last week was robust and a $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill has been passed.
Short-dated Treasury yields are down 15 basis points from highs hit last week and Chinese October export data have beaten forecasts.
But despite that backdrop, world stocks are struggling to make headway after hitting record highs. Wall Street futures, so far at least, are in the red.
The view possibly is that this is a reprieve and it won’t be long before the U.S. Federal Reserve starts getting hawkish; October payrolls revealed hefty job additions as well as rising hourly wages. So watch today’s slew of Fed speakers, among them Vice-Chair Richard Clarida.
The recent central bank-linked volatility will also sharpen focus on economic data — Wednesday’s U.S. inflation figure is the centrepiece — forecast to show a further price growth acceleration — followed Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator on Tuesday.
As for today, excitement is building (yet again!) on Tesla after CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter followers voted in favour of him offloading 10% of his share holdings. With speculators possibly jumping in to front-run that sale, Frankfurt-listed shares are down 9%.
Finally, the impact of China’s ongoing regulatory crackdowns continues to trickle through. A $10 billion hit to SoftBank’s Vision fund was driven by its Chinese tech holdings, with its largest asset, e-commerce firm Alibaba (BABA) losing a third of its value in the second quarter for instance
Later today, infrastructure-linked shares could get a fillip from the passage of the U.S. bill, with oil already up 1%. Finally, as of today, vaccinated non-U.S. citizens can fly to the United States without restrictions — potentially setting the stage for a boost for airlines and jet fuel prices.