Selv om Deutsche Bank advarer mod skråsikre prognoser, så vurderer banken, at de asiatiske tiger-økonomier klarer sig bedre gennem krisen end de øvige Emerging Markets. Der har traditionelt været en lavere rente i Asien, og banken venter langt mindre rentestigninger i 2022 end i de øvrge Emerging Markets.
Asian markets have been much more resilient than the other emerging markets of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA) and Latin America in 2021. Whether this endures in 2022 will be determined by whether US equities can withstand the Fed raising rates (tightening), renminbi stability can continue, and benign inflation in Asia can last.
- Asian foreign exchange rates (FX) appear far less sensitive to US rates, and more impacted by the US yield curve and US equity returns. A flatter curve (little difference between short-term and long-term bond rates of return) with weaker equities would be the toughest environment for Asian FX, while continued gains in equities would moderate any fallout.
- Our base case is for the renminbi to be stable in 2022 as China’s sealed borders prevent outbound travel and to support the current account surplus. But a more infectious variant could increase the economic costs relative to the health benefits in China. The need for lower rates (policy easing), or a significant shift away from “zero-Covid” could be risks to the renminbi.
- While more Asian central banks will start hiking rates in 2022, this is likely to be slower than in other emerging markets. See figure 4. Inflation is set to be close to or below central bank targets everywhere in the region except India. The lost economic output during Covid will take time to recover. And private sector credit growth is mostly still very weak, especially in Southeast Asia (ASEAN). Moreover, easing by the People’s Bank of China is likely to be in stark contrast to tightening Fed, with Asia straddling this policy divide.
Asian central banks have been slower to lift rates and are expected to hike more gradually next year too
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