Deutsche Bank har opstillet 10 temaer, som banken tror vil præge den økonomiske, finansielle og politiske udvikling i det nye år. For investorerne bliver 2022 et normaliseringens år. Coronaen får ikke lov til at dominere som hidtil. Alt får et lidt mere normal forløb i forhold til de seneste to år med enorme kursstigninger. Virksomhederne får sværere ved at tjene penge, og der bliver en overflod af investeringer og produkter. Samtidig bliver der fuldt tryk på ESG-investeringer, fordi der næsten er gået mode i ESG hos kunderne og virksomhederne. Men der sker også noget i cyberspace. Centralbankerne tager de første skridt til digitale valutaer, og kapløbet om rummet går ind i en militær fase, hvor landene måske slet ikke har lyst til at lave aftaler med hinanden, fordi de hver især håber at få overtaget. Det kan forstærke de geo-politiske spændinger.
Top-10 themes of 2022: Summary
Is covid the only theme that matters? That is not the right question. In fact, covid is now not so much a
theme as it is the backdrop against which most things are evolving in economics, finance, and corporates.
So what themes matter in 2022? Of course, we address the big macro topics – the risk of the global
economy overheating given stimulus measures and the change in attitude of central banks towards
employment goals.
Then there is how tight labour markets may further boost inflation. A flow on is higher
bond yields and the end of free money that has propped up markets since the financial crisis. Stock markets
may not crash, but they could witness the return of fundamental investing.
Corporates, in 2022, will struggle with new issues – in addition to labour shortages. For two decades,
returns have been generated by rising profit margins and cheap debt. Now both those things are looking to
reverse in 2022. Competition regulators are flexing their muscle and, to compensate, managers will have to
rediscover their operational mojo. That means generating more sales from existing assets.
Does any corporate theme matter in a shortage economy? A good question with a contrarian answer.
Basically, we see an inventory glut in 2022. Manufacturers are going full tilt, while retailers are beginning to
over-order.
ESG has been turbo-charged by covid. The momentum is fully behind ESG bonds, particularly sustainability-linked bonds. Investors love the story, customers love the story, and corporates are piling on board.
Away from the spotlight, several other themes could have serious repercussions in 2022. One is that central
bank digital currencies will take a massive step forward with some countries planning to go live in 2022.
Meanwhile, we think most people underestimate how the growing militarisation of space will ratchet up
geo-political tensions. Between anti-satellite missiles and growing budgets for military space divisions,
the worrying thing is that the benefits of space supremacy are now so great that there are reasons why
countries may push back against any new treaty.
