Det store borgerlige parti, CDU og søsterpartiet CSU, står til et drønende nederlag i det tyske valg i slutningen af september. Den seneste meningsmåling fra Forsa viser, at Socialdemokratiet SPD er røget foran CDU med 23 pct. mod 22 pct. Det betyder, at SPD med finansminister Scholz har mulighed for at få kanslerposten i en tre-partiregering, men hvor kongemageren bliver det liberale parti, FDP. En koalition vil i givet fald bestå af SPD, De Grønne og FDP eller CDU/CSU, SPD og FDP eller CDU/SCU, De Grønne og FDP. Bliver FDP kongemageren, vil en ny regering være økonomisk ansvarlig som hidtil, men med kraftig satsning på digitalisering samt med en aktiv EU-politik, men uden at give EU en stærkere central økonomisk rolle, vurderer Deutsche Bank.
Liberals – from underperformer to kingmaker of the next government?
While the Conservatives’ position in the polls seems to be in free fall for now, the FDP has regained standing with the voters just in time for the federal election in September. According to current polls, only three-way party coalitions have a majority, hence, the Liberals could end up as the new kingmakers, clearly favouring a coalition with the Conservatives and the Greens (Jamaica) over a traffic-light coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
But there are still five weeks to go and the election race is as open as ever. Though the FDP traditionally benefits from strategic voting in federal elections, i.e. CDU voters voting FDP with their second vote, we do not expect this to be a major factor this time. As the Liberals currently poll far above the critical 5%-hurdle, there seems to be little incentive for conservative voters to lend their (second) vote to further strengthen the Liberals. Given the weak polling of the CDU/CSU, its senior politicians have started to warn against such tactical voting to ensure the Conservatives come in first and form the governing coalition.
Were the FDP to be part of the next government, it would likely push for a resumption of a fiscally conservative path and a technology-driven climate policy relying primarily on market-based instruments. On the EU level, the Liberals reject turning the NGEU into a permanent fiscal capacity and prefer to keep the status quo of the SGP.
Current polls suggest that the FDP will be needed to form a majority government, unless the Left improves substantially and SPD and Greens are prepared to team up with them. Polls have been in flux since the mid-July floods in Western Germany, with the CDU/CSU losing nearly 5pp, now standing close to the 23% mark.
Frontrunner Laschet, PM of the flood-affected North Rhine-Westphalia, further lost standing with voters because of his perceived weak crisis management (see Figure 2). Meanwhile, the SPD’s already popular FM Scholz raised his profile by portraying himself as effective crisis manager, providing the needed funds for reconstruction. In the end, and long awaited by the SPD, Scholz’s popularity helped the party back to the 20% polling mark, for the first time since re-entering the grand coalition in 2017.
Now the SPD is even polling head-to-head with the CDU/CSU and has overtaken the Greens, according to a recent INSA-poll. The Greens lost in polls given the weakened popularity of their chancellor candidate Baerbock and despite the floods being broadly seen in the context of increasing climate risks. Taken together, these shifts led to an erosion of a black-green majority in polls. Thus, the Liberals, stable in polls, seem to be closer than ever to realizing their intention to become so strong that no “serious” coalition can be formed without them, as set out in the election manifesto.
