Deutsche Bank skriver i en analyse af indvandringen til Tyskland, at indvandringen fra Asien er faldet dramatisk i 2021, og tallet ventes fremover at være lavt. I alt faldt indvandringen i 2020 til 220.000 mod 300.000 i de foregående år, op til 400.000. Da der i flere sektorer i Tyskland er mangel på arbejdskraft – både i industri og service – kan det føre til lønpres med højere lønninger i de kommende år.
COVID causes dip in migration. Higher
wage pressure likely
– Net migration to Germany came to approximately 220,000 in 2020. Migration was curbed in particular by the months under lockdown. The figures show a massive decline compared to previous years, when more than 300,000 and as many as 400,000 people migrated to Germany annually.
– In particular, migration from outside of the EU is down significantly year on year. The top 20 countries of origin are now made up only of European and Asian countries. Migration from within the EU was also down overall compared to previous years.
– On the whole, migration from other major European countries was significantly lower in 2020 than it was in 2019 and fell by 5% across all EU member states.
– Migration from Asia declined sharply. In fact, migration figures for China, Japan and South Korea actually show net emigration. Migration from India remained positive but fell by almost 70%. Migration from Afghanistan rose, likely as a result of the planned withdrawal of allied troops from the country. The emerging humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan may cause migration to Germany to rise sharply in 2021.
– Nevertheless, we are still likely to see a dip in migration in 2021. Coronavirus-related restrictions at the beginning of the year saw migration fall by half year on year in the first few months of the year compared to 2019. According to our calculations, migration to Germany is likely to increase by only a small margin in 2021 compared to 2020.
– Given that the coronavirus crisis has barely had an impact on residential building activity, the lower level of migration should help to alleviate the housing shortage in 2021, as it did in 2020.
– However, the migration trend means that there will be a shortage of many thousands of labourers and skilled workers in the employment market, where labour demand has risen sharply again over the past few months. Due to the coronavirus crisis, the number of people working may have already peaked on account of the large number of people expected to retire in the future, exacerbating the shortage of labourers and skilled workers and increasing wage pressure over the
remainder of the decade.
