Deutsche Bank står bag en analyse, der viser, at forbrugerne slet ikke sætter forbruget så meget op som forventet, efter at pandemien ebber ud. Virksomhederne i både Europa og USA har haft forventning om en betydelig stigning i indtjeningen – dels fordi borgerne har fået penge i hænderne af staten, dels fordi forbruget har været lavt under pandemien. Men forbruget stiger bare ikke som ventet. Det skyldes bl.a. Delta-varianten, men generelt er der en skepsis over for at bruge løs, fordi mange er bekymrede over deres job som følge af pandemien, og fordi de ikke venter, at deres økonomi varigt bliver bedre. Det kan ramme virksomhedernes indtjening.
Curious side effect to pandemic?
Many corporates have penciled in a strong rebound in earnings this year backed by forecasts of robust pent-up demand.
A recent survey carried out by our dbDIG team of US and key European countries showing that:
- People foresee higher household income.
- Investors are becoming concerned about the spread of the Delta variant.
- Even though people are ready to resume purchases, they are not ready to spend large amounts of money on them.
- Deteriorating expectations about job security.
- Many people see their recent savings as windfall gains instead of income and, psychologically, this makes them harder to spend.
