Coronakrisen kommer til at slå endnu hårdere end forventet, og genstarten bliver endnu sværere og mere langvarig, end mange forventer, hedder det i en analyse fra Deutsche Bank. Det er vurderinger, som stadig flere analytikere når frem til.
Honey, we shrank our economy!
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Abstract:
Weaker-than-expected March hard data and shocking April survey data point to a lower trough in economic activity than assumed so far. We now see Q2 GDP falling by 14% qoq, with the risks still skewed to the downside.
In the 2009 recession, private consumption acted as a massive shock absorber. Given the lockdown, social distancing and a likely severe hit to income expectations, we expect private consumption to fall by 10% in 2020.
The asynchronous global development of the COVID-19 pandemic and lasting impediments to global trade, will make the recovery, which began in May and will become more evident in H2, less dynamic than hoped for earlier.
As a result, we expect German GDP to decline by 9% this year and to expand by about 4% in 2021.
