Deutsche Bank venter, at den kinesiske boligkrise vil vare et år og igen føre til vækst i tredje kvartal 2022. I så fald vil krisen reducere den kinesiske vækst med mellem 1,5 og 2 pct. Men bliver krisen værre, og vil den vare hele 2022, kan væksten for 2022 blive reduceret med mellem 3 og 4 pct. Banken tror ikke, at krisen får så stor en negativ virkning, som mange mener, fordi boligsektoren ikke udgør så stor en del af økonomien, som de fleste mener, snarere 20 pct. af BNP end 30 pct. Desuden har Kina oplevet fire nedture de seneste 15 år på boligmarkedet, og hver krise varede 3-4 kvartaler med et fald i vækstraten på i snit ca. 2 pct.
How big will the China housing shock be?
In a new podcast Yi Xiong, Chief Economist, China and Luke Templeman, Thematic Research discuss China’s housing activity, which remains weak. Meanwhile, market participants are trying to understand the implications of this for China’s growth next year.
- How big is China’s housing sector? We are frequently reminded by the media of how important the property sector is to China’s economy. Specifically, recent news reports have often mentioned that the property sector accounts for as much as 30% of China’s GDP. Is that true? No. The housing sector value-added is about 11% of China’s GDP, while housing demand is about 20% of China’s GDP.
- How long will this property downcycle last? A property downcycle in China typically lasts 3-4 quarters. China’s property sector has had four downturns over the past 15 years (the brief downturn in 2020 caused by the Covid-19 shock is excluded). We think the most probable scenario is that the housing sales downturn will last for 4 quarters; growth should turn positive by Q3 2022.
- How much impact will there be on China’s GDP growth in 2022? China’s GDP growth slowed during each of the 4 property downcycles in the past 15 years. These property downcycles (periods when property sales growth stayed negative) on average lasted 3 quarters. Real GDP growth on average dropped by about 2 ppts during these periods, varying from 4.8 ppts in 2008-09 to 0.7 ppts in 2014-15. The housing downcycle’s impact on GDP growth is likely to be 1.5-2 percentage points. In a downside scenario – that the housing downturn lasts throughout 2022 – its impact on GDP growth could reach 3-4 percentage points.
