Deutsche Bank har lavet en analyse af udsigterne for tiden efter coronaen. Der er generelt positive udsigter, omend væksten ventes at blive lidt lavere end forventet i USA og Kina. Men der er to store risici: 1) Delta-varianten, hvis den kommer ud af kontrol og især rammer de nye økonomier. 2) En vedvarende højere inflation på 3-4 pct. Det vil i givet fald føre til rentestigninger, der vil ramme finansmarkederne og de nye økonomier hårdt, og det kan føre til en ny recession.
The New World: Moving Beyond Covid
WORLD
• The short-term growth outlook remains strong thanks to (i) successful vaccine rollouts; (ii) major fiscal support; and (iii) huge accumulated savings and pent-up demand waiting to be released.
• The main risks to this forecast are twofold. Firstly, from a new Covid variant that is more resistant to vaccines. Or alternatively, if inflation were higher than expected and central banks had to tighten earlier than anticipated.
China
• We recently revised down China GDP growth forecast to 8.4% this year, noting that the Covid-19 impact, land and property market
cooling down, and potential slowdown in exports could all contribute to slower activity.
• We expect the PBoC to cut 10bps rate in September, with rates on hold after.
UNITED STATES
• Real GDP now exceeds its pre-Covid peak, and the economy should expand by +6.3% in 2021 (Q4/Q4).
• We have downgraded our forecast, as Q2 disappointed, the delta variant is acting as a near-term drag on activity, and supply-chain issues continue to impact production.
• We expect that an official announcement on tapering will come in November, with tapering commencing in December.
GERMANY
• We have cut our German GDP forecast to 3.1% due to more lasting and severe supply problems. Record order book levels and solid demand should spur growth to 4.5% in 2022.
• Voters go to the polls on September 26. As it stands, the only safe projection is that there will be three-way coalition. We attach roughly the same probability to either a SPD-led traffic-light coalition or a CDU-led Jamaica coalition.
EUROPE
• We expect Euro Area GDP to expand by 5% in 2021. First, vaccinations allowed for faster than expected Q2 rebound but momentum is now easing. Next, pent-up demand and NGEU continue to support further improvement. But, delta variant
and supply disruption bring risks.
Emerging Markets
• EM growth has defied concerning pandemic trends. Central banks have turned more hawkish, but many are still in the early stages of normalisation.
• In Asia, growth is supported by external demand, but central banks will mostly lag other regions in normalizing policy.
• In LatAm, most of the region has already started to normalize monetary policy settings.
• In CEEMEA, growth momentum is showing signs of slowing down, but inflation pressures will mean central banks keep tightening.
Key Downside Risks
Issues with Covid mutations or the vaccination rollout –
Though vaccination programmes are progressing, a new mutation in the virus or issues with the rollout could set back the point at
which herd immunity is reached.
Higher-than-expected inflation –
A persistent overshoot of inflation into the 3-4% range would elicit a strong response from the Fed that would hit global financial markets and a number of emerging market economies hard, very possibly moving the global economy into recession.
