“Narrow reciprocity would have a very small impact. Taken as a literal interpretation of the US replicating other countries’ tariffs on its own imports, DB calculates (using 10,000 tariff lines) that the average weighted increase in the US rate would be only 2%. The reason is simple: the starting point of global tariffs is already very low; even if the US matches the rest of the world, the impact would be minimal. Still, some countries would be impacted more than others. The charts below show where tariffs would go up the most, but the numbers also need to be adjusted by the relative importance of US trade in that country’s GDP. Vietnam, Thailand and India show up as the most vulnerable.”
Morten W. Langer
