Deutsche Bank skriver i en analyse af de tyske partiers valgprogrammer, at tyskerne til septembner får et klart valg mellem stabilitet – hos de borgerlige CDU/CSU – og gennemgribende forandring – hos De Grønne. Udfaldet vil få stor betydning for EUs udvikling.
CDU/CSU manifesto: A programmatic
umbrella for a catch-all party
At last, the Conservatives revealed their 140-page election manifesto earlier this afternoon. The manifesto is centered on the key themes of stability and, as Laschet put it, “the triad of climate change, economic strength and social security” in a modernised state. The Conservatives (faithful to their name) thereby differentiate themselves from the Greens’ focus on faster change and transformation. We provide a summary of the key messages regarding EU, fiscal and climate policies in our note.
At last, the Conservatives revealed their 140-page election manifesto. In
contrast to 2017, the two sister parties agreed on a joint programme,
signaling that disputes between Laschet and Söder have been settled.
Thus, the CDU/CSU looks set for the hot phase of the election campaign,
which we expect to start only after the summer break. The manifesto is
centered around the key themes of stability and, as Laschet put it, “the triad
of climate change, economic strength and social security” in a modernised
state. The Conservatives (faithful to their name) thereby differentiate
themselves from the Greens’ focus on faster change and transformation.
Climate policy is not featured prominently, forming part of a broader
chapter on the future growth model. The CDU/CSU are sticking to the
recently tightened targets of reducing CO2 to 65% by 2030 and reaching
carbon neutrality by 2045. Moreover, they emphasize the use of efficient,
market-based tools like CO2 pricing in conjunction with the national/EU
emissions trading system (ETS) and tax deductions for investments in
climate-friendly technologies.
On tax and fiscal policy, the CDU/CSU keep their conservative profile by
rejecting any tax increases and calling for a (moderate) reduction of the tax
burden. However, they do not provide any details on how to square the
circle of sticking to the debt brake, spending more on social welfare and
funding tax breaks as well as the transformation to a net zero world.
Interestingly, the “Germany investment fund”, which Laschet referred to in
previous statements, is not mentioned.
With respect to EU policy, the Conservatives emphasize the one-off
character of the NGEU, opposing the Greens’ push for further fiscal
integration. But this is more a matter of principle for the moment, as no
relevant decision is looming over the next four years. The Conservatives also
call for swiftly applying the fiscal rules of the SGP again. These demands
could become relevant in the near term as the EU Commission puts forward
its proposal for the reform of fiscal rules in autumn.
Overall, the CDU/CSU offer a wide range of policy proposals for their broad
voter base. The manifesto provides sufficient leeway for upcoming
negotiations with potential coalition partners – be it with the Greens or the
Liberals. Bear in mind that in Germany the need to form coalition
governments always requires some degree of political flexibility, and that in
the end the coalition agreement is what counts. In the short run, the
manifesto is not likely to add further momentum to the CDU/CSU’s approval
rates, currently polling 7pp ahead of the Greens.
