Tyskland får ikke så hård en nedtur som frygtet, vurderer Deutsche Bank, og fremgangen næste år bliver bedre end forventet. Nedturen i år ventes at blive på en minusvækst på 5,5 pct. mod en tidligere forventning om minus 9 pct., mens væksten næste år ventes at blive på 4,5 pct.
Uddrag fra Deutsche Bank:
More resilient than expected
Abstract:
For Germany, we have lifted our GDP forecast for 2020 to -5.5% and see the economy expanding by 4.5% in 2021.
An important factor is that the rebound during Q2 – when GDP contracted by 9.7% – turned out more dynamic than expected.
The momentum carried over into July. Even with some likely short-term moderation in August, we now expect Q3 GDP to increase by 6.0% qoq.
Together with a 2.5% expansion in Q4, this should result in an annual GDP drop of “only” 5.5%, compared to the 9% expected in early May at the height of the pandemic in Europe.
The higher carry-over lifts our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5%, despite somewhat weaker momentum in H1 than expected earlier.
