Krigen i Ukraine vil svække den økonomiske genrejsning i Tyskland, men ikke standse den. Deutsche Bank venter, at væksten vil reduceres til mellem 1 og 1,5 pct. i år. Hvis krigen får større økonomiske konsevenser end ventet med stigende gas- og oliepriser, kan inflationen stige til 7 pct. mod forventet 5,5 pct., vurderer banken.
War in Ukraine – New realities 2.0
War in Ukraine – slowing but not ending the German recovery.
In a moderate economic scenario (which is our new baseline forecast) we expect German GDP to grow by between 2 ½% and 3% (old forecast 4%).
Surging energy prices should push the annual inflation rate to around 5 ½% in 2022. Government spending is expected to be ramped up by 1 ¼ and 1 ½ pp, limiting the overall growth loss.
In a more severe scenario headline inflation could rise to between 6 ½% and 7%, as oil and gas deliveries are at least temporarily halted.
Annual GDP growth should be a meagre 1% to 1 ½%.
