Deutsche Bank skriver i en analyse, at den amerikanske centralbank kan stramme pengepolitikken mere, end den allerede har lagt op til med flere rentestigninger. Centralbanken er kommet bagefter udviklingen med stærkt stigende inflation og pres på lønningerne, og derfor kan centralbanken skride til en endnu kraftigere stramning for at forebygge kommende problemer. Det kan byde på store overraskelser.
Why the speed of impending Fed policy tightening could surprise
A new Deutsche Bank report explain that in recent months the Fed has pivoted toward a more aggressive path of exiting from its current ultra-accommodative pandemic emergency policy stance.
The report highlight that the Fed has also become considerably more hawkish, with their baseline expecting liftoff in March, four total rate hikes this year, and a rapid drawdown in the balance sheet beginning in Q3. The central message of the note is that we could be in for an even bigger hawkish surprise in the months ahead.
