Deutsche Bank venter, at ECB vil stramme pengepolitikken mere end antydet i går, hvor banken signalerede en rentestigning på 25 basispunkter i juli og eventuelt en stigning på 50 basispunkter i september. Banken tror, der kommer to store rentestigninger på 50 punkter efter juli-stigningen. Banken venter, at der også bliver en stigning på 50 punkter i oktober og på 25 punkter i december, så depotrenten bliver på 1 pct. ved årets slutning.
Deutsche Bank expects two 50 bps ECB rate hikes this year
Deutsche Bank says it now expects the European Central Bank to deliver two hefty 50 basis point rate hikes this year after kicking of a tightening cycle with a quarter point move in July.
The ECB ended a long-running stimulus scheme on Thursday and said it would deliver next month its first interest rate hike since 2011, followed by a potentially larger move in September.
In a note published late Thursday, after the ECB meeting, Deutsche Bank said that it had changed its rate hike forecasts.
“Our new ECB hiking baseline is +25bp in July, +50bp in September, +50bp in October and +25bp in December,” the note said.
“The deposit rate will be 1% by year-end, lifting it to the lower end of the range for estimates for the nominal neutral rate.”
