Deutsche Bank venter en vækst i 3. kvartal i Tyskland på 5 pct. efter det dramatiske dyk på 10,1 pct. i 2. kvartal. For hele året venter banken en minusvækst på 6,4 pct., efterfulgt af en stigning på 4 pct. i 2021.
Uddrag fra Deutsche Bank:
How strong a Q3 rebound?
Monthly data point to a strong pickup in economic momentum during the course of Q2, in part due to catch-up effects.
Still, after the unprecedented 10.1% GDP contraction in Q2 we expect a 5% increase in Q3 followed by a 2% rise in Q4 (consensus: 5.2% and 2.4%).
We now expect German GDP to contract by 6.4% (compared with -9% predicted in early May) followed by a 4% increase in 2021.
Still, the pre-COVID output level will not be reached before mid-2022.
The current exceptional volatility in monthly data and the further development of the global pandemic imply that the error margins remain exceptionally high.
