Deutsche Bank har analyseret virkningen af Work From Home og konkluderer, at der ikke hidtil har været en produktivitetsgevinst. Der er fordele og minusser for både medarbejderne og virksomhederne, men det kan tage flere år, før det er muligt at vurdere den samlede konsekvens. Når der i nogle tilfælde kan måles en øget produktivitet, kan det også skyldes, at medarbejderne arbejder i flere timer end normalt. En uventet konsekvens kan være, at hjemmearbejde og digtaliseringen vil gøre det fordelagtigt at bruge medarbejdere fra hele verden.
Working from home potential only half fulfilled in Germany. Is there a productivity paradox?
We compare the current debate with the discussion about the introduction of the computer in the 1980s. Then as now, positive and negative effects on a macroeconomic level could almost cancel each other out at first. Accordingly, we anticipate that the question of productivity is only likely to be answered in some years’ time.
The world of work has seen a new consensus emerge in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The future belongs to hybrid working models, as long as the requirements of the job permit. This is suggested by surveys conducted at management level as well as responses from employees. The new normal of the post-COVID-19 world could consist of an average two days working from home[1] and three days at the office.
Nevertheless, the use of Work-From-Home, WFH, seems to remain below capacity. A study conducted by the ifo Institute concluded that in March 2021 only slightly more than half (31.7%) of the potential for WFH (56%)[2] in Germany was being used by employees who were able to work from home at least some of the time.[3]
There are probably a large number of reasons why this was the case despite the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing rules. Our table provides an overview, by no means exhaustive, of the numerous WFH-related factors and arguments affecting employees’ private lives and work, companies and society as a whole.
The question of productivity is a factor that ought to significantly influence the structure and scope of WFH. Many questions still remain unanswered.[4] Given the wide range of perspectives on this subject, we expect that this will be the case for some time to come. By way of analogy, the famous quote by Nobel prize-winner Robert Solow about the increased use of computers in the 1980s, can be adapted to apply here: “You can see working from home everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”
Even though the massive increase in WFH during the COVID-19 pandemic is primarily to protect the health of employees, considerations on productivity will play an extremely important role in determining what happens afterwards. Just as the positive effects of the wide-scale introduction of computers only became evident after a substantial period of time, the extent of the overall effect on productivity of remote working may only become apparent at a later date.
There are four basic explanations for this paradox from the 1980s: first, measurement errors; second, computers caused an increase in complexity and progress was therefore more limited than generally assumed; third, positive effects only occurred after some delay – often decades later; and fourth, a discrepancy between the productivity of the individual and that of the overall economy.
Similar arguments may also explain the various observations and perceptions about working from home. For example, employees credit themselves with relatively high levels of productivity while working from home.[5],[6] Surveys of HR managers, however, produce a more mixed picture.[7] Employees may possibly overestimate their productivity because they increase their working hours by at least a proportion of the commuting time they save.[8]
Secondly, WFH could increase the complexity of business processes. There are many activities which lend themselves very well to WFH. However, creative tasks without fixed outcomes often require intensive communication in and across teams. Even smoothly functioning technology may place a strain on the participants’ concentration when used intensively – especially when information is being exchanged among large groups. Even if the current results from the COVID-19 crisis are included, some surveys and statistics suggest that research and development in particular is less effective in the WFH scenario.[9],[10]
Thirdly, there could be long-term effects that both reduce productivity and increase it. In the short term, existing teams now working increasingly from home might maintain their level of efficiency or even raise it. What is unclear, however, is how successful the integration of new members will be. Equally, it might prove challenging to build up informal knowledge and establish informal networks.
Finally, both the digitalisation of companies and the global WFH boom will push open the door to the global labour market a little further. The number of well-qualified applicants with moderate salary demands could rise substantially and increase the productivity of companies. From a global perspective, many (but by no means all) employees could benefit from this. Politically imposed framework conditions motivated by social policy might have a huge bearing on the question of productivity.
There are, however, additional challenges in store for companies against the backdrop of the increasing skills shortage. Career-minded employees might see WFH as a barrier to progress. For family-oriented workers on the other hand, it could be an opportunity to combine personal and professional ambitions. There are, then, many individual answers to the question of productivity. Due to these many different elements and the high level of complexity involved in the issue, it might well take some years before a consensus on the question of productivity emerges.
