Antallet af coronasmittede og døde i Europa er eksploderet, og nu er der flere døde end i Kina. Spanien ser ud til at få en mere dramatisk udvikling. Nordea har lavet en detaljeret oversigt, udtrykt i grafer.
Uddrag fra Nordea:
Daily Corona update: More fatal cases in Italy than China
We bring you our daily Corona update with statistics from across the globe. Italy now sadly has more fatal cases than China, while there are some early signs that South Korean daily cases are increasing again.
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The amount of new daily cases in Italy kept increasing yesterday (+5,322 on the day, compared to +4,207 the day before), while we saw some stabilization in Spain with +2,626 new cases compared to +2,900 the day before. US saw +4,530 new cases, but mainly due to an increased testing effort as prewarned by the White House. Italy exceeded China as the country with most fatal cases in the World on the official data. Lets hope and pray that Italy’s widespread measures will soon show up in a slowing fatality rate acceleration.
Chart of the day: Italy has the most fatal Corona cases in the World
South Korea which had otherwise effectively contained the initial virus spread now experiences a slight renewed increase in daily cases, which could hint that the isolation/track-down strategy may just postpone cases rather than limiting them. This is though in line with the curve-flattening strategy pursued by authorities in most countries.
Chart of the day 2: South Korean cases are starting to pick up slowly again
The amount of cases globally has now risen to +245,912, with “just” +80,967 cases in China. All focus is on the development in the new cases in Europe and US for markets, but maybe half an eye should be kept on South Korea as well. Total fatalities reached+ 10,048 globally and are still developing exponentially with a time-lag of new daily cases in Europe. No reassuring signs are seen outside of Asia yet.
Chart 1: Cases and fatalities in RoW vs. China. Focus on Europe and US
The number with the most information value currently is probably the fatality rate as a % of citizens. Italy has the worst fatality rate with almost 60 fatalities per million citizens, but judged from the curvature since the first fatality was announced, it looks as if Spain is on a worse path than Italy.
We may have a non-neglectable shadow number in the amount of fatalities by now, since e.g. Italy reports that not all fatal cases are counted due to capacity constraints etc. French and German fatal cases are now starting to accelerate as well.
Chart 2: Spain may be on a worse path than Italy
In Scandinavia, we are still far from being on Spanish or Italian paths, but the data material is still very scarce and it is early days. It is hence too early to exclude the possibility of an exponential development in fatal cases in the Nordics. Both Norway, Sweden and Denmark currently have roughly 1 fatal case per 1 million citizens (7,11 and 6, respectively), which is a very low number in an international comparison. Finland is yet to see any fatal cases.
Chart 3: Fatalities per million citizens in the Nordics
Here is the total global overview including Scandinavia. We work to include the amount of people in critical condition in each country. Currently 2,498 are in critical condition in Italy, 2,274 in China, 931 in France and 800 in Spain (top-4). While 27, 21 and 30 are in critical condition in Norway, Sweden and Denmark, respectively.
Stay safe.
