Alle kan godt glemme enhver tanke om en svag dollar som følge af coronakrisen, skriver Merrill i en analyse. Dollaren har nået et historisk højdepunkt.
Uddrag fra Merrill:
All Eyes On King Dollar
If there were any doubts about the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency,
they have been put to rest the last few months. The dollar has strengthened against
nearly every major and emerging market currency year-to-date and the Bloomberg
Dollar Index reached an all-time high on March 23. The strength of the dollar reflects
its reserve status, the relative strength of the U.S. economy prior to the COVID-19
pandemic as well as the flight-to-quality from the pandemic itself, which caused massive
demand for dollars as financial stress rose and risk-off sentiment set in.
Ensuingcurrency volatility led to the unwinding of carry trades, punishing emerging market
currencies and raising the cost of dollar-denominated debt. Meanwhile, the onset of
a global recession has reduced demand for commodities, which are priced in dollars,
further reducing the supply.
A stronger U.S. dollar is serving to tighten financial conditions and exacerbate
deflationary forces both here and abroad. Aggressive reflationary policy by central
banks along with much-needed Fed dollar liquidity facilities to relieve funding pressures
should ultimately lead to a weaker dollar, in our view. Recent activity in foreign
exchange markets suggests we may be in the early phases of a dollar peak, but we will
likely also need to see persistent relief from the COVID-19 pandemic to reinforce the
global recovery.
Exhibit 4: King Dollar Could Signal A Turn In Risk Assets
