Annonce

Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind
Finans

Dollaren stiger i et marked fyldt med uro

Hugo Gaarden

fredag 01. oktober 2021 kl. 10:11

Dollaren er steget til det højeste niveau i et år – en stigning på 4,7 pct. alene i år. Det er varslingen om en neddrosling fra den amerikanske centralbanks side samt den stigende inflation og en stigende rente, der presser dollaren opad. En euroæisk bank tror, dollaren kan stige med 10 pct. Dollar-stigningen ramme mange amerikanske virksomheders indtjening, især high-tech selskaber, som henter halvdelen af deres overskud i udlandet.

Uddrag fra Fidelity/Reuters:

‘Perfect storm’ lifts dollar over unsettled markets

 

A grinding rally in the dollar is picking up speed, fueled by a hawkish tilt from the Federal Reserve, rising Treasury yields and concerns over the possibility of a drawn-out battle to raise the U.S. debt ceiling.

The greenback is up 4.7% year-to-date and stands near its highest level in a year against a basket of currencies. Net bets on the dollar in futures markets are at a more than 18-month high, according to data from the CFTC.

Because the dollar is the world’s dominant currency, its trajectory can have far-reaching implications for everyone from corporations to global central banks.

While a robust dollar can be a sign of economic strength, a too-rapid rally in the currency can also hit the balance sheets of U.S. exporters by making their products less competitive abroad and make it more expensive for multinationals to convert their funds back into their home currency.

“The U.S. dollar move we’re seeing at present is due to a confluence of factors that are all aligning to create the perfect storm,” said Simon Harvey, senior FX market analyst at Monex Europe in London.

One key driver of the dollar’s strength has been a more hawkish Fed, which last week said it would start unwinding its $120 billion in monthly government bond purchases as soon as November and potentially begin raising rates in 2022, earlier than some investors had expected.

Yields on 10-year United States Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which strip out inflation, have risen by about 37 basis points since early August, compared with a gain of only 5 basis points for its German counterpart. That has increased the attractiveness of dollar-denominated Treasuries compared with their foreign counterparts.

“It seems the consensus view that (the) Fed taper was in the price of the dollar was incorrect,” said Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer, at Millennium Global in London. “We’ve had a 20-30 basis-point backup in yields which has supported the dollar.”

A nasty fight over raising the U.S. debt ceiling which could result in a U.S. default if lawmakers do not agree by Oct. 18, is also pushing up the dollar, a popular destination for nervous investors.

So are worries over the meltdown of heavily indebted China Evergrande Group, once the country’s top-selling real estate developer, as well as concerns over rising inflation and potentially slower growth, said Harvey, of Monex Europe.

The S&P 500 fell 4.8% in September, its worst month since March last year, while the dollar index rose 1.7%.

“The bulk of these factors are all pointing to a more stagflationary macro environment and are thus leading to markets taking shelter in the dollar,” Harvey said.

Many are also trying to gauge a stronger dollar’s potential effects on corporate balance sheets.

Companies in the technology sector are among the most exposed to currency fluctuations, with more than 54% of total revenue in the category coming from overseas, an analysis of Russell 1000 companies by Bespoke Investment Group showed. That is followed by the materials sector, where almost 46% of total revenue comes from abroad.

“Most firms would start to worry about those risks if the dollar index starts to approach the 100.00 level as we head into 2022,” he said. The index stood at around 94.25 late on Thursday.

Some investors believe the dollar’s strength is unlikely to last. Analysts at Neuberger Berman said in a recent note that the dollar has entered a multi-year bear cycle after peaking in March 2020 and will eventually drift lower.

Others, however, are betting a hawkish Fed will likely keep the U.S. currency elevated in coming months.

The dollar could rise by as much as 10% from current levels on expectations of Fed tightening, analysts at Societe Generale said in a recent report.

Tilmeld dig vores gratis nyhedsbrev
ØU Top100 Finansvirksomhed

Få de vigtigste om bank, realkredit, forsikring, pension
Udkommer hver mandag.

Jeg giver samtykke til, at I sender mig mails med de seneste historier fra Økonomisk Ugebrev. Lejlighedsvis må I gerne sende mig gode tilbud og information om events. Samtidig accepterer jeg ØU’s Privatlivspolitik.

Du kan til enhver tid afmelde dig med et enkelt klik.

[postviewcount]

Jobannoncer

Direktør for Forsvarsministeriets Personalestyrelse
Region Hovedstaden
Finance Controller – få sparringspartnere fra hele Europa (fuldtid)
Region Syddanmark
Erhvervsministeriet søger kontorchef til analyse på det erhvervsøkonomiske område
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Leder af Løn og Vilkår
Region Hovedstaden
Er du økonom, og drømmer du om at bidrage til et bedre sundhedsvæsen og være tæt på beslutningerne på en af landets største børne- og ungeafdelinger?
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Økonomikonsulent til fagforbund
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Forsker eller seniorforsker til økonomiske analyser af arbejdsmarked, sundhed og arbejdsmiljø
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Finans

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.

FÅ VORES STORE NYTÅRSUDGAVE AF FORMUE

Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:
dage
timer
min.
sek.

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter og realkreditrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs

Fidelity

Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank

UBS

SEB

Natixis

Handelsbanken

Merril Lynch 

Direkte adgang til realkreditinstitutternes renteprognoser:

Nykredit

Realkredit Danmark

Nordea

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker

Links:

RBC

Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet 

Investing.com: FED Watch Monitor Tool

Nordea

Scotiabank