DSV Q4: Kæmpe miss på EBIT-resultat i forhold til analytikerforventning

ØU Kommentar: DSV leverede i Q4 et EBIT-driftsoverskud på 3936 mio. kr. – i forhold til analytikernes forventning på 4276 mio. kr. 

‘Fra DSV:

Solid financial results in Q4 and full-year 2024 driven by strong organic volume growth

• The DSV Group improved its performance in Q4 2024 and reported solid full-year results for 2024 driven by continued organic above-market growth.
• While gross profit decreased by 1.2% compared to 2023 and EBIT before special items by 8.4% in constant currencies, earnings growth returned in the second half of 2024, despite the Road division being impacted by a weaker market in Q4 2024.
• Adjusted free cash flow came to DKK 5,550 million for the year, impacted by increased net working capital, which was driven by higher activity levels and freight rates combined with temporary capital tied up in projects under development.
• Diluted adjusted earnings per share was DKK 51.6 per share for 2024 compared to 58.7 in the previous year.
• Full-year 2025 guidance for EBIT before special items of DKK 15,500-17,500 million, excluding impact from the announced acquisition of Schenker.

Group CEO Jens H. Lund: “We delivered solid financial results for 2024, in line with our expectations, and returned to earnings growth in the second half of the year. We successfully executed on our strategy and grew our volumes ahead of the market, driven by our commercial initiatives and supporting our customers overcome supply chain challenges.

With the announced acquisition of Schenker, we are reinforcing our platform for future growth. We also progressed on the sustainability agenda and are on track to reach our decarbonisation targets as well as supporting our customers in their ambitions to reduce their carbon footprint.

I would like to thank our customers, suppliers and, most of all, my dedicated DSV colleagues for their hard work and support. I am very much looking forward to continuing the journey together with the employees from Schenker. Together, we will create a leading player within global transport and logistics.”

Selected key figures and ratios for the period 1 January – 31 December 2024

Performance in Q4 2024
While the market remained influenced by the challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical situation with disruptions related to the Red Sea, DSV delivered a solid financial performance in Q4 2024 with an EBIT before special items of DKK 3,936 million, which is above the same period in 2023 in constant currencies. The positive development was primarily driven by positive organic above-market growth in all three divisions.

Air & Sea continued the positive commercial development and gained market share with an organic volume growth of 7% in Q4 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. In combination with stable gross profit yields for both air and sea, the division delivered gross profit growth of 8.3% and EBIT before special items growth of 8.4%.

Besides the normal seasonality impact, the Road division was negatively impacted by weaker market conditions in Q4 2024 due to reduced macroeconomic activity, especially in Europe and within automotive, and by one-off costs related to operational challenges and a write-off of receivables in the US activities. Weaker demand and low freight rates in combination with cost pressure from suppliers led to pressure on gross profit and EBIT before special items in the quarter, which decreased by 9.8% and 33.4%, respectively, for the quarter.

Solutions reported a stable gross profit which was up by 0.8%, while EBIT before special items decreased 12.4% in Q4 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. While the division reported a positive development in customer wins and activity growth, the ramp-up of new sites and an increase in warehousing capacity led to temporarily lower utilisation.

EBIT before special items for the full year was DKK 16,096 million and was within the recent guidance range of DKK 16,000-17,000 million.

Outlook for 2025
The full-year guidance for 2025 excludes impact from the announced acquisition of Schenker, which is still expected to close in Q2 2025.

• EBIT before special items is expected to be in the range of DKK 15,500-17,500 million.
• The effective tax rate of the Group is expected to be approximately 24%.

The outlook for the air and sea freight market assumes continued growth in global volumes of around 3% in line with global GDP forecast, despite the current macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. We continue to target profitable growth above the underlying market, based on the strategic commercial initiatives in 2024 and we assume slightly lower to stable gross profit yields for both air and sea.

For the road market, we expect flat to low-single digit market growth, with market conditions still expected to be weak during the first half-year. Gross profit margins in the Road division are expected to remain stable or slightly improve compared to 2024. The contract logistics market is expected to achieve low- to mid-single digit growth rates. In 2025, DSV Solutions will continue to focus on improving the warehouse utilisation rate through our commercial initiatives.

We assume that the currency exchange rates, especially the US dollar against DKK, will remain at the current level. The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, including the situation in the Red Sea remains uncertain, and unforeseen changes may therefore impact our financial results. We continue to monitor activity closely across our organisation and adjust capacity and cost base accordingly.