Log ud Log ind
Log ud Log ind

Dudley: Forvent i år 4-5 renteforhøjelser i USA, afsmitning på Europa med højere renter

Morten W. Langer

tirsdag 18. januar 2022 kl. 16:20

Uddrag fra Unicredit:

In the US, former NY Fed governor, now Bloomberg columnist, Bill Dudley, wrote a striking piece on Monday predicting that the Fed will turn “a lot more hawkish, both in the near term and over the next few years” than it presently indicates because its
inflation forecast is “surreal”.

Dudley concludes that the Fed may start hiking immediately after QE ends in March for a total of 4-5 hikes this year. He sees fed fund rates and bonds yields moving well above what’s priced in. Two days later, on Wednesday, US December inflation printed at a 40-year high of 7%, while wage growth has accelerated to the highest level in ten years.

Meanwhile in Europe, inflation hit 5% in December, but with no sign of wage pressure developing. Nevertheless, a relentless
(mis-guided) public pressure is building on the ECB to act, particularly in Germany. This led to what appeared this past week to
be competing narratives about the inflation outlook inside the ECB’s Executive Board when Isabel Schnabel’s green transition
speech last weekend was widely interpreted as hawkish.

In it, she emphasized that higher inflation due to the green transition would not be transitory. But was it all false alarm? On Friday night, Süddeutsche Zeitung published an interview with Schnabel in which she forcefully put the record straight and aligned herself with respect to the inflation outlook and the ECB’s reaction function.

The contrasting outlook for the US and Europe leaves me wondering how the ECB will react this year if considerably higher
yields in the US translate into upwards pressure on European yields. EUR/USD will most likely fall, but yields are a lot more
important for European financial conditions than the exchange rate.

1. Inflation in the US vs. Europe
I have long argued that the higher inflation during 2021 in both the US and Europe is transitory because it was overwhelmingly
driven by one-off factors, including higher commodity prices and the supply bottlenecks. More recently, however, US inflation
has been supplemented by a strong dose of demand-driven price pressure as the US economy has taken off much stronger
than Europe.
The US economy is well through its end-2019 level and is now chasing the pre-pandemic trend line. Meanwhile, the eurozone
has only just re-established end-2019 levels of GDP with the trend line still at least a couple of years away. In simple
economics language, the US economy is now closing its output gap at a good pace, while the eurozone continues to suffer
from a sizable gap, partly due to the existing output gap when the pandemic hit, partly due to the slower recovery.

There are now plenty of signs in the US that buoyant demand is taking over as the key driver of higher inflation: Core CPI
inflation has accelerated to 5.5% and the number of items with price increases above average has increased measurably,
although some of that is still technical in nature. For example, rents have shot up during the past four months following the
expiration of the eviction moratorium at the end of August.

In other words, standard “cost-push inflation” is being accompanied by “demand pull” inflation in the US, driven partly by fiscal
stimulus, partly by consumers reducing their excess savings. As a result, and critically important for the appropriate monetary
policy reaction, the US labor market is turning red hot. The unemployment rate has dropped to 3.9% and the number of
voluntary job-quitters reached a 40-year high in November.

Not surprisingly, wage growth increased to a whopping 6.0% in Q3, measured by the Employment Cost Index for wages and salaries.
This is markedly different from Europe where inflation continues to be driven predominantly by energy, the supply bottlenecks
and the effect of the change in the German VAT rate. This is all “cost-push” inflation with virtually no signs of “demand pull”. In
other words, the high inflation rate in Europe is a sign of erosion of the population’s real income and hence purchasing power,
not as a sign of over-heating.

This is reflected in the European labor market, which was provided temporary oxygen, in the form of furlough schemes and
guaranties for businesses, during the height of the crisis. It is still only in the early stages of finding its own feet again. As a
result, wage growth remains utterly unspectacular (although a fair amount of pandemic-related noise remains in the wage
data). The growth rate in negotiated wages dropped to just 1.3% (yoy) in Q3, the lowest since the introduction of the euro in

One reason for this unspectacular wage development is the full restoration of labor force participation to its pre-pandemic
level in Europe (testimony to the success of Europe’s furlough schemes), and hence supply of labor. This is in sharp contrast to
the US where participation remains well below pre-pandemic levels, which I’ll come back to. Still, as long as there is no sign of
wage pressure, any withdrawal of economic policy stimulus would be a mistake.

Lige nu: Få 3 gratis numre på ØU Formue
Er du ikke kunde? Så snup 3 gratis udgivelser af Danmarks førende e-magasin om investering. Udgivelsen indeholder aktieanalyser og aktietips, som du kan omsætte til profit. Ingen binding & udløber automatisk.
Del på facebook
Del på twitter
Del på linkedin
Del på email
Del på print



Energinet søger økonom til projekter i den grønne omstilling
Region Syddanmark
Private Banking rådgiver søges til Ringkjøbing Landbobank i Aarhus
Region Midt
Økonomikonsulent til tværgående anlægsstyring
Region Sjælland
Grant Thornton søger revisor med minimum et par års erfaring
Region Hovedstaden
Topdanmark søger IT-udvikler med flair for økonomi til transformationsprogram
Region Hovedstaden
Grant Thornton Denmark søger erfaren revisor
Region Hovedstaden
Kalundborg kommune søger økonomimedarbejder med talent for præcision og udvikling (genopslag)
Region Sjælland
Møns Bank i Næstved søger erhvervsrådgiver – er det dig?
Region Sjælland
Plesner søger økonom til ambitiøs økonomisk analyseenhed
Region Hovedstaden
AC Birk søger Økonomichef med fokus på bæredygtig økonomi for vores 3 spændende forretningsenheder
Region Midtjylland
Kreditkonsulent søges til Danske Andelskassers Bank A/S
Region Midtjylland
Røde Kors søger en Blended Finance Advisor
Region Hovedstaden
Ringkøbing Landbobank søger Privatrådgiver til hovedkontoret i Ringkøbing
Region Midtjylland
Senior Director for Humanitarian Innovative Finance Hub
Region Hovedstaden
Sparekassen Kronjylland søger kvantitativ analytiker eller statistiker
Region Midtjylland
Forretningsorienteret controller til økonomistyring i Vejdirektoratet
Region Hovedstaden
Vil du være med til at udvikle vores ledelsesteam, og brænder du for ledelse?
Region Sjælland
Hans Knudsen Instituttet søger Senior Business Controller til økonomiafdeling
Region Hovedstaden
KPMG søger målrettede MidMarket-revisorer
Region Hovedstaden
Opsøgende privatrådgiver til Ringkjøbing Landbobank i Aarhus
Region Midtjylland
Finanstilsynet søger Vicekontorchef til kapitalmarkedsanalyse
Region Hovedstaden
Head of Finance and Controlling til Kalundborg Refinery
Region Sjælland
Er business controlling i staten noget for dig?
Region Hovedstaden
Vil du arbejde med økonomisk rådgivning for nogle af Danmarks største virksomheder?
Region Hovedstaden
Projektkonsulent til forretningskritisk projekt i Udviklings- og Forenklingsstyrelsen
Region Hovedstaden
Spændende juridiske stillinger indenfor et område med stor politisk bevågenhed
Region Hovedstaden
Skattestyrelsen søger teamkoordinator til transfer pricing
Region Hovedstaden
Udløber snart
Brænder du for at bidrage til den regnskabsmæssige understøttelse af staten
Region Hovedstaden

Mere fra ØU Formue

Seneste nyt

Mest læste

Få dit daglige nyhedsoverblik i din indbakke

Seneste rapporter fra eksterne rådgivere

Dybdegående og original 
journalistik siden 1994

Økonomisk Ugebrev har i mere end 25 år leveret indsigtsfuld og dagsordensættende journalistik og analyser til læserne og den brede offentlighed. 

Vi tager ansvar for vores indhold og er tilmeldt:


Log ind


Salg: [email protected]
Jobannoncer: [email protected]
Redaktion: [email protected]
Annonce materialer: [email protected]
Bogholderi: [email protected]

Skriv til os på: [email protected]
Vi bestræber os på at besvare henvendelser indenfor 24 timer.
Telefonisk henvendelse: 70 23 40 10
Telefonerne er åbne alle hverdage fra: 10-15

Økonomisk Ugebrev A/S
CVR-nr.: 31760623
Forbindelsesvej 12, 2. tv
2100 København Ø

Log ind

Har du ikke allerede en bruger? Opret dig her.


Få to GRATIS analyser af Novo Nordisk & Zealand Pharma 

*Tilbuddet gælder ikke, hvis man har været abonnent indenfor de seneste 6 måneder


Her er de 10 bedste aktier i 2022

Tilbuddet udløber om:

Analyse af og prognoser for Fixed Income (statsrenter)

Direkte adgang til opdaterede analyser fra toneangivende finanshuse:

Goldman Sachs


Danske Bank

Morgan Stanley

ABN Amro

Jyske Bank





Merril Lynch 

Analyse og prognoser for kort rente, samt for centralbankernes politikker



Capital Economics

Yardeni – Central Bank Balance Sheet FED Watch Monitor Tool




Log ind

[esi iteras-paywall-login paywallid="qwerty123"]