Resume af teksten:
Strammere kreditbetingelser for virksomheder og lav efterspørgsel efter investeringslån i euroområdet viser, at investeringer stadig hovedsageligt drives af offentligt forbrug. ECB’s undersøgelse for det fjerde kvartal 2025 peger på moderat vækst i bankudlån trods en let forbedret økonomisk udsigt. Banker strammede kreditstandarder på grund af usikkerhed fra handelskonflikter, hvilket også dæmpede virksomheders låneefterspørgsel. Den globale handelssituation påvirker negativt, men ikke nok til at føre euroområdet mod recession. Virksomheders låneefterspørgsel steg lidt, især for arbejds- og lagerkapital, mens efterspørgslen efter investeringslån forblev lav. Efterspørgslen efter bolig- og forbrugslån viser forskellige tendenser med øget interesse for boliglån, imens lav forbrugertillid sænker appetitten på forbrugerkredit. ECB’s rentebeslutning forventes ikke at ændre sig, da nuværende data ikke indikerer betydelige ændringer i pengepolitikkens effekt.
Fra ING:
Tighter credit conditions for businesses and stagnant demand for loans related to fixed investment indicate that the expected improvement in eurozone investment is still primarily driven by public spending
The ECB bank lending survey for the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that continued moderate growth in bank lending is in the making despite a somewhat improving economic outlook for firms in both manufacturing and services. Banks tightened credit standards, which was in part due to the trade war and related uncertainty. This also worked the other way, as demand for loans by firms was also lower because of it.
Clearly, the global trade environment continues to negatively impact economic activity, although the drag is not strong enough to bring the eurozone close to recession either.
Loan demand by firms did increase somewhat, but mainly because of working capital and inventory needs. The sluggish demand for fixed investment loans suggests that any pickup in investment in the short run is likely to come more through public spending plans.
Demand for housing loans continues to increase for the moment, while low consumer confidence is reducing demand for consumer credit. At the same time, credit standards for mortgages eased slightly. This indicates that bank lending to households has more potential for acceleration in the short run.
For the ECB, today’s data doesn’t reveal a particularly strong direction for where the transmission of monetary policy to lending is headed. A neutral interest rate seems to be met by a neutral lending response. So once again, another good reason for the ECB to stay put when it comes to its rate decision on Thursday.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
