Resume af teksten:
Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) har besluttet at holde renten uændret. Den nuværende inflation er faldet, og der er få tegn på, at stigende energipriser påvirker økonomien betydeligt. Eurozonen har vist modstandsdygtighed over for det nuværende olieprischok. Dog er inflationsforventninger baseret på undersøgelser steget og kan være en bekymring for ECB. Den seneste stigning i energipriser har ført ECB tættere på deres mere alvorlige makroscenarier, hvilket kunne retfærdiggøre en rentestigning i fremtiden. ECB’s makroprojektioner i september kan indikere behovet for en rentestigning, medmindre oliepriserne falder betydeligt. Præsident Christine Lagarde vil give officielle begrundelser for beslutningen på en pressekonference.
Fra ING:
The European Central Bank just decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Through the rearview mirror, this decision clearly makes sense. Headline inflation has actually come down, there are very few signs of knock-on effects from higher energy prices, and the eurozone economy has shown some resilience to the current oil price shock. It’s only survey-based inflation expectations that have gone up and will be a concern for the ECB. Looking ahead, however, the decision of whether to keep interest rates unchanged is not so straightforward.
In fact, the latest increase in energy prices has actually pushed the ECB closer to its more severe macro scenarios, calling for another rate hike – at least when following the ECB’s own logic and reaction function, presented at the June meeting. Unless oil prices start dropping significantly over the next weeks, the ECB’s own macro projections in September will call for another rate hike, loud and clear. Against this background, the ECB could have also opted for a rate hike today, following a ‘never put off until tomorrow what you can do today’ principle. Instead, it seems the central bank got cold feet and didn’t want to break the well-established tradition of never surprising markets that has developed in recent years.
Let’s hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the press conference, starting at 2:45pm CET, to see what the official arguments for today’s decision were and whether she will give any hints at a rate hike in September.
Kilde: ING, https://think.ing.com/snaps/ecb-rate-decision-jul26/
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