Resume af teksten:
Den Europæiske Centralbank (ECB) har fastholdt renten, men opdateret sin inflationsprognose for 2026, hvilket viser, at det er vanskeligt at indlede en nedsættelsescyklus. ECB vurderer, at en neutral pengepolitik er passende, og en rentenedsættelse kræver en markant nedgang i inflations- og vækstforventninger. ECB’s seneste prognoser peger på, at eurozonen vil have en BNP-vækst på 1,2% i 2026 og en inflation på 1,9%. Prognosen for 2026 er revideret op pga. en langsom nedgang i serviceinflation. ECB’s opretholdelse af en neutral politik stemmer overens med deres ‘good place’ vurdering. Christine Lagardes kommentarer ved pressekonferencen kan give yderligere indblik i fremtidig politik, men med inflation og vækst tæt på målene, forventes ingen ændringer.
Fra ING:
The European Central Bank has kept interest rates on hold but revised up its 2026 inflation forecast, illustrating once again that the hurdle to starting an outright easing cycle is high
The ECB’s inflation forecasts, in particular, suggest the current neutral stance on policy is the right one
The last ECB rate cut dates back to June this year. Keeping interest rates unchanged for more than half a year now sends a strong signal that it would need a severe downward shift in inflation and growth (expectations) to get the central bank into cutting mode again. In fact, the ECB’s so-called “good place” is simply a neutral monetary policy stance. As noted, the hurdle to moving from neutral to actual easing remains high.
While the decision to keep interest rates on hold was expected, all eyes were on the fresh round of ECB staff projections. The inflation forecasts, in particular, provide more evidence that the Bank’s current ‘good place’ is also the right place.
In the staff projections, eurozone GDP growth is expected to come in at 1.2% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.4% in 2028. Headline inflation is expected at 1.9% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. The slight upward revision to the 2026 forecast is the result of a slower than expected drop in services inflation, while the 2027 drop will be the result of the delayed implementation of the second phase of the EU’s Emissions Trading System.
Let’s now wait for ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments at the press conference, starting at 2.45pm CET, to see whether there will be any additional hints at the future direction of policy. Generally speaking, with inflation expected at or slightly below 2%, as well as growth expected at around potential, there is no reason for the central bank to change its policy stance any time soon, either to the upside or downside.
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