ECB er på vej med en meget ambitiøs strategisk analyse, vurderer Danske Bank, og banken opstiller 10 kritiske spørgsmål til ECB’s pengepolitik, der omfattende tunge emner fra inflation til klimapolitik.
Uddrag fra Danske Bank:
2020 is set to be a crucial year for the ECB as it will review its monetary policy strategy / framework.
At next ECB meeting, the ECB is widely expected to officially launch the review. So far, few members of the ECB’s Governing Council (GC) have shared their views on the strategic review, although ECB President Lagarde said that they will leave no stone unturned and that they aim to conclude it by the end of 2020. However, we find the timeline on the ambitious side given the complexities of this exercise. We expect a conclusion in the course of 2021.
In the following, we examine ten key questions on the upcoming review:
- Review – why do it now and what is the timeline?
- What is so magical about the 2% number?
- What’s in scope of the review?
- How to measure inflation and what inflation measure to target?
- What inflation target regime could we expect?
- How do they decide and vote?
- Will climate change and sustainability be included in the review?
- Will the ECB start to communicate in another format, such as individual votes?
- Does it impact credibility and what implications will it have for the toolbox?
- How to trade the review?
