Den nye chef for ECB, Christine Lagarde, vurderer, at svagheden i økonomien i Europa breder sig. Det kan føre til en ny ECB-stimuli pakke næste år.
Uddrag fra ABN Amro:
ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a dovish tone in remarks at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament. She noted that the outlook for the global economy remained ‘sluggish and uncertain’ and that this was weighing on investment and exports, with the manufacturing sector slowing the most due to these developments. At the same time, she noted that the weakness was spreading saying that the Governing Council was ‘seeing signs of spillovers to other parts of the economy, with recent survey data pointing to some moderation in the services sector’. The weakness in the economy had ‘been affecting price developments, which remain subdued’ and she added that ‘inflation expectations are at or close to historical lows’.
Against this background she talked up the effectiveness of the ECB’s tools saying that ‘monetary policy can respond effectively even when growth is being dampened by external factors’.
We think her comments are consistent with our view that the ECB will announce a second stimulus package in the coming months (most likely in March of next year).
Meanwhile, Ms. Lagarde also discussed the ECB’s intention to ‘review our strategy and to consider how our monetary policy can best deliver on our mandate’. She said it was premature to discuss the precise scope of the exercise but did note that central banks had been struggling with ‘how to best define the medium-term objective of monetary policy, so as to ensure that expectations are firmly anchored’ and that this could be especially helpful today when ‘policy space to buffer the economy from adverse developments is more limited than it was prior to the crisis’.
It seems to us that this definition of the issues suggests that the ECB would be minded to opt for a more ambitious and clear inflation goal that could push inflation expectations up rather than down. Finally, the ECB President hinted that the review could take a while to complete, saying that it would require ‘ time for reflection and for wide consultation’.
