ECB ser ud til at trodse den tyske højesteret, der mener, at ECBs opkøbsprogram strider mod EU-traktaten, men der er ikke kommet helt klare signaler, selv om den franske centralbank siger, at ECB vil fortsætte med stimuli, hvis det er nødvendigt.
Uddragh fra ABN Amro:
Global Daily – ECB heads for more stimulus despite court ruling
ECB View: Strategy to deal with German court unclear but stimulus is still on the cards – The German Constitutional court’s ruling (see our note from yesterday) does not seem to have had any impact on the future direction of the ECB’s monetary policy. The Governing Council’s statement in response to the decision reiterated its commitment to ‘doing everything necessary within its mandate to ensure that inflation rises to levels consistent with its medium-term aim and that the monetary policy action taken in pursuit of the objective of maintaining price stability is transmitted to all parts of the economy and to all jurisdictions of the euro area’.
In addition, the Governor of the central bank of France, Francois Villeroy, made clear today that the ECB would likely step up monetary stimulus before long given the deteriorating outlook for inflation and the ECB’s ‘total’ commitment to its inflation mandate. In remarks to the finance committee of the French National Assembly, he asserted that ‘in the very name of our mandate, we will be able to go further, and we will most likely have to go further’.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s exact strategy for dealing with the court ruling is unclear at this stage. In yesterday’s press statement, the Governing Council simply noted that ‘the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled in December 2018 that the ECB is acting within its price stability mandate’.
This may signal that the ECB intends to ignore the ruling of the German court based on the view that the ECJ has jurisdiction not only over the ECB but also over the implementation of monetary policy by Eurosystem central banks, including the Bundesbank. Clearly, this is a grey area.
However, remarks by the Estonian central bank Governor, Madis Muller, suggested the ECB would produce the analysis necessary to satisfy the German constitutional court. He explained that the Governing Council ‘will certainly be able to demonstrate that when taking monetary policy decisions…the effects of all sorts of (factors) are weighed in every sense by the ECB’. He added that the ECB still needs to discuss its approach and that ‘this is a delicate situation for the ECB as its not directly addressed to the ECB or even German Bundesbank, but to German government and the Bundestag’.
