ING ser lys for enden af corona-tunnelen. Nu begynder flere lande at drøfte, hvordan og hvornår de skal lempe for den omfattende nedlukning af økonomien, selv om de tøver med at tale om det af frygt for, at befolkningen lemper på de aktuelle, skrappe forholdsregler.
Uddrag fra ING:
Light at the end of the tunnel
European countries begin to mull easing of restrictions, though worries about second waves persist
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Good news or just to prop up morale?
If the people of Europe are feeling anything like the cabin fever I’m struggling with, then the prospect of some gradual easing of restrictions will help to keep spirits buoyed and movement restrictions adhered to. If it seems a bit early to be considering deconfinement, it probably is. But the thinking might be that you can’t keep extending lockdowns and expecting there not to be some sort of pushback or some crumbling of adherence.
In any case, the FT is suggesting that France, Spain, Belgium, and Finland may be actively looking at formulating a plan for deconfinement. In addition, Denmark, Germany, Italy, and the UK are apparently looking into this, though perhaps not wanting to distract attention from the current message, which remans to comply with lockdowns.
The relevance of this is that it could indicate the end in sight for the deep economic trough being ploughed by some economies. Though the very cagey steps being discussed re-emphasize that any improvement may be very gradual, and there remains a high risk that even these easing restrictions could result in second waves of the disease, which would doubtless result in countries returning quickly to lockdown.
If that turns out to be the case, this would be more like the third (and second-worst scenario in our latest monthly – if you haven’t yet had a chance to read it, please give it a look) .
