Uddrag fra MarketEar:
King of boring
The world’s most exciting stock has basically done nothing since June last year. 200 day is a few dollars lower, and there is some sort of trend line slightly lower, but this looks like boring for longer.
Source: Refinitiv
After the NVDA plateau
Yardeni: “We expect it to continue rising over the rest of this year after plateauing for the past six months”
Source: Yardeni
NVDA net income
Nvidia’s Net Income hit another record high at $22.1 billion in Q4. That’s an 80% increase over last year’s Q4 Net Income of $12.3 billion.
Source: Compound
On that important margin
“One major concern about Nvidia is that its earnings growth rate is slowing. Seemingly exponential revenues growth was supercharged by the soaring forward profit margin from a low of 35% in 2023 to 56% in 2024. Progress has stalled, and the margin is narrowing, if anything, ever so slightly. Nvidia guided a non-GAAP gross margin of 71% for the current quarter, just below the consensus estimate of 72%. The company has said the margin will widen again once new products like Blackwell reach the market. That certainly makes sense!”
Source: Yardeni
Multi-year low of 29x
“But if a slowdown in growth is a concern, it’s already reflected in Nvidia’s share price. The valuation multiple has declined from a peak of 50 times forward earnings in 2023 to a multiyear low of 29 times as of earlier this week ”
Source: Yardeni
Never ever…
NEVER EVER buy a cyclical when it looks “cheap” after a monster run.
Revisiting the AI bull case
Bulls focus on:
1) This is the Q4 1996 – Q1 1997 period, which was 6 months of flat price
2) Decreasing costs are positive adoption
3) Robots and Autonomous driving the application
4) AGI soon
(GS tech)
AI bears
Bears focusing on these main points according to GS:
1) AI will affect <5% of work tasks
2) $1T+ invested, but no major problem solved
3) AI= Metaverse = Reality Labs lost $13.7 billion in 2022 alone. ROI 0
4) Lack of AI application
If….you can make one heap of all your winnings
If you had invested $10,000 into Nvidia stock when it went public in 1999 and held to today you’d currently have $52.6 Million.
Not huge excitement
“Indeed, it was the smallest revenue beat in two years ($39.3bn vs $38.25bn expected), so that was underwhelming for investors used to much bigger upside surprises. Looking forward, sales guidance for the current quarter ($43bn vs $42.3bn expected) was a little above the average estimate, and Nvidia were upbeat on the ramp up of new products, with its new Blackwell chip delivering $11bn of revenue last quarter and CEO Jensen Huang saying that “Demand for Blackwell is amazing”. However, their shares were down -1.5% by the end of after-market trading, and futures on the NASDAQ 100 are only pointing to a modest recovery, up just +0.18%. So this isn’t a release that’s created huge excitement.” (Deutsche Bank)
NASDAQ: a temporary soft patch
“The Nasdaq Composite dipped below its 50-day moving average (dma) but remains above its 200-dma. We’re projecting that this index will remain in its upward channel, and we are targeting 22,000 for it by the end of this year.”
Source: Yardeni
De-grossing in size
This month’s notional de-grossing in US TMT stocks – long sales and short covers combined – is tracking to be among the largest on our record.
Source: GS
That CAPEX boom in context
Annual capex in $bn for the big-four AI hyperscalers, with 2025 forecasts based on company guidance and our estimates.
Source: Deutsche Bank
Who needs NVDA?
Europe’s got Rheinmetall. Chart shows RHMG and NVDA over the past 6 months (in %).
